Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Aces-Liberty and Sun-Lynx)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the two Game 1 matchups in the WNBA semifinals on Sunday.

Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson (22) celebrates with teammates. / Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The WNBA Playoffs return after a short layoff with the first games of the semifinals on Sunday.

The Las Vegas Aces, New York Liberty, Connecticut Sun and Minnesota Lynx all needed just two games to dispose of their first-round opponents, leaving us with the top four teams in the standings left in the postseason.

Here’s a quick look at the matchups:

• No. 4 Aces vs. No. 1 Liberty
• No. 3 Sun vs. No. 2 Lynx

The Aces and Liberty are the top two teams in the odds to win the title this season, but only one will advance to the WNBA Finals. Meanwhile, the Lynx and Sun – the two best defensive teams in the W – are looking to prove that they are just as equipped to win a title in 2024.

With these two series beginning on Sunday, I have a pair of best bets to place – one for each game – after the first round saw some interesting results. 

Can we start the semis with a sweep?

Here’s how I lean when it comes to both of these matchups.  

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 77-61 (+8.03 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

• Las Vegas Aces +4 (-108) vs. New York Liberty – 0.5 unit
• Connecticut Sun-Minnesota Lynx UNDER 155 (-115) – 0.5 unit

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Las Vegas Aces +4 (-108) vs. New York Liberty – 0.5 unit

The Aces failed to win a single matchup between these teams in the regular season, losing by eight and 12 at home before dropping the last meeting by four in New York – even though A’ja Wilson sat out. 

That could be a positive sign for the Aces, as Wilson – the league MVP – could swing this game in their favor on Sunday.

The Liberty have been the best team in the league all season long, but they can’t seem to cover the spread at home, going just 6-17 ATS there.

That’s not a good sign in what should be a pretty even matchup with the Aces back at full strength. Las Vegas is 9-10-1 against the spread on the road, and it closed out the regular season strong, winning five games in a row and nine of its last 10.

While the Liberty have the star power – Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, Sabrina Ionescu – to win this series, I’m not sold on them running away with it. 

Over the final 15 games of the regular season, the Liberty had the best net rating in the WNBA at +11.4, but the Aces weren’t too far off at +7.6. With Wilson back, I think we’ll see a similar matchup to the last time these teams faced off at Barclays Center. 

Give me the Aces to keep this game close and give us an entertaining Game 1. 

Connecticut Sun-Minnesota Lynx UNDER 155 (-115) – 0.5 unit

We could have a rock fight on our hands at Target Center on Sunday night.

The Sun (No. 1 in defensive rating, dead last in pace) take on the Lynx (No. 2 in defensive rating, No. 10 in pace) in a matchup that has been an under bettors dream this season.

In three meetings in the regular season, the Sun and Lynx combined for 165 points (in an overtime game), 151 and 154 points. 

Now, the total for this game is set at 155, a sign that oddsmakers expect something similar to the final two meetings between these squads.

Minnesota played a high-scoring first-round series against the weak Phoenix Mercury defense, but I expect the Sun to slow this game down and try to limit Napheesa Collier, who is averaging 40 points per game across two playoff appearances this season.

The Sun are one of the best UNDER teams in the W, 23-19 this season, and the Lynx aren’t far off (22-20-1) from their mark.

If both of these teams play to their strengths – defense and deliberate offense – I’d expect this game to fall short of 155 points. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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