Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for A'ja Wilson, Caitlin Clark, Sparks-Sky on Friday)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down four bets to place for the loaded WNBA slate on Friday, Sept. 6.

Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson. / Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Friday night’s WNBA slate is LOADED with intriguing matchups and star talent, making for a major WNBA Best Bets column.

The game of the night is between the No. 4-seeded Las Vegas Aces and No.2-seeded Connecticut Sun, as A’ja Wilson looks to continue an insane stretch where she’s scored 40-plus points in two of four games. 

Later in the night, the Indiana Fever put their five-game winning streak to the test against the No. 3-seeded Minnesota Lynx in what would be a first-round preview for the playoffs. 

Tonight, I’m eyeing four plays, including a pair of props for Wilson and Caitlin Clark. 

Let’s stay hot for this massive four-game WNBA slate. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 59-46 (+7.51 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

• Minnesota Lynx-Indiana Fever OVER 170 (-110) – 0.5 unit
• Los Angeles Sparks +5.5 (-112) vs. Chicago Sky – 0.5 unit
• A’ja Wilson OVER 40.5 Points and Rebounds (-118) – 0.5 unit
• Caitlin Clark OVER 35.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-114) – 0.5 unit

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Minnesota Lynx-Indiana Fever OVER 170 (-110) – 0.5 unit

One of the best trends in the WNBA this season has been the Indiana Fever hitting the OVER. 

They’ve done so in 22 of their 34 games, and I’m expecting another high-scoring affair on Friday night. 

Indiana has the profile of a perfect over team, ranking No. 3 in the league in offensive rating, No. 11 in defensive rating, and No. 4 in pace. Since the Olympic break, the Fever are No. 1 in the league in pace, letting Clark push the tempo whenever she can.

That’s allowed fellow guard Kelsey Mitchell to get going, and it’s turned the Fever into the No. 1 offense over an eight-game stretch.

The team that’s No. 2? Minnesota.

These teams combined for exactly 170 points the last time they faced off, but Indiana’s offense has been even better at home (fourth in home offensive rating, higher than their full-season ORTG, and No. 2 in effective field goal percentage). 

I wouldn't be shocked if the Fever tried to turn this game into a track meet to pull off an upset. 

Los Angeles Sparks +5.5 (-112) vs. Chicago Sky – 0.5 unit

Can we trust the Chicago Sky in the midst of a seven-game losing streak?

I just don’t buy them right now, especially if Chennedy Carter remains out of the lineup due to her COVID diagnosis. 

As bad as Los Angeles has been this season, it has a better net rating than the Sky since the Olympic break. Plus, the Sparks have an impressive upset win over the New York Liberty and covered the spread against the Indiana Fever on Wednesday.

Los Angeles enters this game with an 11-6 ATS record on the road, much better than the Sky at home (5-11 ATS). Take the points in what should be a closely-fought matchup. 

A’ja Wilson OVER 40.5 Points and Rebounds (-118) – 0.5 unit

Let’s go back to the well with an A’ja Wilson prop. 

Wilson is averaging 27.5 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 2.4 assists per game while shooting 52.6 percent from the field and 33.9 percent from 3. She also has a Defensive Player of the Year argument, putting up 2.7 blocks and 1.9 steals while recording 3.2 defensive win shares on the season.

I’m eyeing her points and rebounds prop, something Wilson cleared with a 26-point, 16-board showing in the first meeting between these teams. 

Over her last four games, Wilson has 48, 42, 58, and 44 points and rebounds, scoring over 40.5 points alone in two of those games.

She’s been dominant all season, but with a top-four seed on the line, the Aces star keeps raising her game to a new level. I expect nothing different on Friday night. 

Caitlin Clark OVER 35.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-114) – 0.5 unit

Speaking of players who have been on fire, Caitlin Clark has taken things to a new level since the Olympic break.

The Rookie of the Year favorite is averaging 24.5 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 9.1 assists per game while shooting 38.8 percent from 3 since the break, putting up a 24-point, 10-rebound, 10-assist triple-double on Wednesday night in a win over the Sparks. 

Clark has cleared 35.5 points, rebounds, and assists in six of eight games since the Olympic break, including a 23-point, five-rebound, eight-assist matchup against the Lynx in a 10-point loss on the road. 

At home, I expect Clark to keep rolling for the playoff-bound Fever.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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