Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Caitlin Clark, Sky-Lynx, Sun-Mercury)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the massive five-game slate in the WNBA on Friday night.

Connecticut Sun forward Alyssa Thomas. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Friday night belongs to the WNBA, as there are five games in action with the playoffs rapidly approaching.

Tonight is a huge night for the race for the No. 8 seed – the final playoff spot this season – as the Chicago Sky (No. 8), Atlanta Dream (No. 9) and Washington Mystics (No. 10) are all in action. Atlanta and Washington play each other, with both teams sitting a game back of Chicago in the standings.

The Sky have a brutal matchup on the road against the Minnesota Lynx, who currently hold a one-game advantage on the Connecticut Sun (also in action tonight) for the No. 2 seed.

That’s a lot to handle, but the playoff chase leaves a ton of intrigue for the five games tonight. 

I’ve narrowed down my three favorite bets – one prop and two sides – for the action on September 13. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 68-53 (+7.52 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Caitlin Clark OVER 3.5 3-Pointers Made (-115) – 0.5 unit
• Minnesota Lynx -11.5 (-112) vs. Chicago Sky – 0.5 unit
• Connecticut Sun -5.5 (-110) vs. Phoenix Mercury – 0.5 unit

Caitlin Clark OVER 3.5 3-Pointers Made (-115) – 0.5 unit

We’re starting with a player prop for rookie sensation Caitlin Clark (a frequent member of these best bets) against the Las Vegas Aces.

This is the second straight game that the Indiana Fever and Aces have faced off, and Clark struggled mightily on Wednesday night, shooting just 6-for-22 from the field and 1-for-10 from beyond the arc. 

So, why bet on her in this one? 

I’m buying low on the 2024 No. 1 overall pick, as she’s been elite since the Olympic break, hitting at least three shots from beyond the arc in every game until Wednesday’s loss.

Over this 11-game stretch, Clark is shooting 36.3 percent from beyond the arc on 10.3 3-point attempts per game (she’s averaging 3.7 makes per game). She’s only attempted less than 10 shots from 3 in three of those 11 games, and she’s never attempted fewer than eight. 

The volume is going to be there for Clark, and this game still matters a ton for the Fever, who only have a 1.5-game lead for the No. 6 seed with three games to play. 

Trust Clark to have a bounce-back showing on Friday. 

Minnesota Lynx -11.5 (-112) vs. Chicago Sky – 0.5 unit

The Sky were blown out by the Mystics on Wednesday night, losing 89-58 without Angel Reese (out for the season).

Chicago’s offense has had all sorts of problems since it traded away Marina Mabrey to the Sun, ranking 11th in the league in offensive rating since the Olympic break.

On the other side of this matchup, the Lynx rank No. 2 in that category, and they also are No. 2 in the W in defensive rating for the season.

Minnesota only won the last matchup between these teams by five points on Sept. 1, but with Reese done for the season, I have a hard time taking any bet with Chicago. 

The Sky are a brutal 9-17 against the spread as an underdog, and they just lost by 31 to a Mystics team that is way worse than the Lynx. With the No. 2 seed still up for grabs, trust Minnesota to pick up the win on Friday night. 

Connecticut Sun -5.5 (-110) vs. Phoenix Mercury – 0.5 unit

Speaking of the No. 2 seed, I also love the Sun to cover the spread in their matchup with the Phoenix Mercury.

Connecticut is a 5.5-point favorite on the road in this one, but it has given Phoenix some major trouble this season, winning by 23 and 27 points at home and 11 points on the road in their three meetings.

The Sun play three bigs – Brionna Jones, DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas – which is a matchup nightmare for the guard-heavy Mercury.

Not only that, but Connecticut has the best defensive rating in the WNBA and plays at the slowest pace. It will do everything it can to grind this game to a halt and beat the Mercury in the painted area. 

Phoenix is just 8-12 against the spread as an underdog this season, and it has the fourth worst net rating in the WNBA since the Olympic break.

I’ll gladly lay the points with the Sun on Friday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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