Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jonquel Jones, Lynx-Liberty Game 2)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for Game 2 of the WNBA Finals between the Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty.

New York Liberty forward Jonquel Jones (35) drives. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Game 1 of the WNBA Finals didn’t disappoint.

Not only did we get overtime in Game 1, but there was some clutch shot-making on both sides, especially the four-point play from Courtney Williams that helped the Minnesota Lynx force overtime and eventually upset the New York Liberty.

Now, the Liberty come into Game 2 with their backs against the wall.

No team in WNBA history has ever erased a 2-0 series deficit, so the Liberty need a win on Sunday afternoon to avoid that unfortunate trend. 

Oddsmakers seem to think that’ll happen, setting Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and company as a seven-point favorite in Game 2. However, the Liberty lost outright as six-point favorites in Game 1, and Ionescu and Stewart combined to shoot just 14-for-47 from the field.

Will there be an adjustment offensively for the Liberty to attack Minnesota’s defense (No. 2 in defensive rating this season)?

Here’s a breakdown of my favorite bets for Game 2 of the WNBA Finals. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 81-71 (+4.69 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

• Minnesota Lynx +7 (-112) vs. New York Liberty – 0.5 unit
• Jonquel Jones OVER 14.5 Points (+100) – 0.5 unit 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Minnesota Lynx +7 (-112) vs. New York Liberty – 0.5 unit

In Game 1, I bet on Minnesota to cover the spread, and I don’t see a reason not to go back to the well in Game 2.

This spread has moved in favor of the Liberty – despite the fact that they lost Game 1. 

New York has been shaky against the spread at home all season long, going 7-18-1 while the Lynx are 17-7 ATS on the road and 13-4 ATS as underdogs. 

Minnesota now has a playoff win, a Commissioner’s Cup title win and two regular season wins against the Liberty this season.

New York relied heavily on Stewart and Ionescu, who should shoot the ball better in Game 2, in Game 1, and it burned them against an elite Minnesota defense (No. 2 in the WNBA in defensive rating).

Both of these teams shoot a lot of 3s, but the Lynx are No. 1 in the league in 3-point percentage and have shown all season that they can compete with this Liberty team. 

Even if Minnesota loses Game 2, I don’t expect it to get blown out. 

Jonquel Jones OVER 14.5 Points (+100) – 0.5 unit 

The Liberty have to find a way to get Jonquel Jones involved more in the offense. She attempted just 14 shots in Game 1 despite scoring 24 points on 9-of-14 shooting. 

Minnesota doesn’t really have an answer for Jones’ size and skill in the post, and she had 21 points and 12 rebounds in New York’s lone win against the Lynx during the regular season.

Everyone’s Game 1 stats feel inflated due to the extra period, but I still think 14.5 points is a reasonable number for Jones in Game 2. 

She’s cleared this prop twice so far this postseason and has at least 11 points in six of her seven games. After Ionescu and Stewart struggled in Game 1, the Liberty may decide to focus on Jones as the No. 1 option on Sunday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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