Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Liberty vs Mercury, Aliyah Boston, Shakira Austin)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets in the WNBA for the action on Monday, Aug. 26.

Indiana Fever forward Aliyah Boston. / Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

What a slate we have in the WNBA on Monday night!

The night kicks off with a standalone game between the Indiana Fever and Atlanta Dream. Star rookie Caitlin Clark is looking to keep her team, which is currently the No. 7 seed, in the playoff mix.

Meanwhile, the Dream have won three of their last four games to pull within half a game of a playoff spot in the W, right behind the Chicago Sky. 

After those matchups, there are a couple of 10 p.m. EST starts, including an intriguing matchup between the WNBA’s No. 1 team – the New York Liberty – and the No. 6-seeded Phoenix Mercury.

I’m eyeing a side in the matchup, and I have a player prop for each game – including the late-night Seattle Storm-Washington Mystics game – that I’ve put into a parlay for tonight’s action. 

In fact, it's the CENTER player-prop parlay, as we’re backing some of the best frontcourt players in the league tonight. 

Let’s dive into the picks!

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 51-40 (+6.50 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• New York Liberty -5 (-110) vs. Phoenix Mercury
• The Center Player-Prop Parlay (-115) 

New York Liberty -5 (-110) vs. Phoenix Mercury

It’s rare that we get a chance to buy low on this New York Liberty team, and I’m going to do so on Monday night.

Fresh off of a loss, the Liberty may not be getting as much love against another playoff-caliber team – and an elite home team – in the Phoenix Mercury. 

Phoenix is 9-4 straight up and against the spread at home, canceling out the Liberty’s impressive 10-4 ATS record away from Barclays Center. However, the Mercury are just 8-8 against the spread as underdogs, leaving the door open for a Liberty cover in this one.

New York and Phoenix are No. 2 and No. 3 in net rating over the last five games, but the Liberty (+15.7) are significantly better than the Mercury (+6.2) over that stretch. 

I am worried about Phoenix’s defense (No. 9 in defensive rating) against the No. 1 offense in the WNBA, especially since the Liberty have the No. 2 defensive rating in the league.

If Betnijah Laney-Hamilton (questionable) suits up, the Liberty simply are a much more talented roster. I’ll gladly lay the five points here with New York looking to bounce back. 

The Center Player-Prop Parlay (-115) 

• Aliyah Boston 10+ Points (-450)
• Shakira Austin 10+ Points (-450)
• Jonquel Jones 8+ Rebounds (-370)

Aliyah Boston 10+ Points (-450)

Aliyah Boston has scored 10 or more points in 24 of her 29 games this season, averaging 13.9 per game heading into Monday’s matchup with the Dream. 

A former No. 1 overall pick, Boston has benefitted from playing alongside Caitlin Clark, who leads the WNBA in assists per game this season. The Dream have allowed 34.6 points per game in the paint this season, and Boston has a 10-point game against them already this season.

Given Boston’s recent usage – at least nine shot attempts in 11 of her last 12 games – she’s a pretty safe play to kick off this parlay. 

Shakira Austin 10+ Points (-450)

Washington center Shakira Austin has only played in 10 games this season due to injury, but she’s been ultra-effective when on the floor. 

Austin is averaging 13.3 points per game while shooting 44.4 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from 3 despite playing just 21.5 minutes per game.

I don’t expect Austin’s minutes to go up, the Mystics center is their best offensive option, and she’s scored 16, 24 and 14 points in her last three games. Austin only has one game with less than 10 points this season, and it was her first game out of the Olympic break when she scored nine points in just 19:46. 

I expect Austin to build on her last three games where she’s played like an All-Star level big for Washington. 

Jonquel Jones 8+ Rebounds (-370)

Liberty center Jonquel Jones is averaging 9.4 rebounds per game this season, and now she gets to face the team with the worst rebounding percentage in the WNBA – the Mercury – on Monday night.

Jones has picked up eight or more boards in 22 of her 30 games this season, including four of her five games since the Olympic break. Even though Phoenix has a bigger center in Brittney Griner, Jones should still get plenty of chances on the glass in what is expected to be a close game (NY is favored by just five points). 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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