Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Sabrina Ionescu, Lynx-Liberty)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets in the WNBA for the WNBA Commissioner's Cup Championship on Tuesday night.

New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu. / Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The 2024 WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Championship features two of the three best teams record-wise in the WNBA, as the Minnesota Lynx take on the New York Liberty on Tuesday night. 

Minnesota is an underdog in this game, but that shouldn't lead to an assumption that the Liberty will win this game. The Lynx already have a 17-point win over the Liberty this season, just one of three losses for Breanna Stewart and company. 

With a standalone game, I have two players – one side and one prop – for this championship matchup. 

In the three years of the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup, there hasn’t been a repeat winner, but the Liberty could change that in 2024 since they defeated the Las Vegas Aces last season. 

Here’s how to bet on one of the best games of the WNBA season.   

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 28-22 (+4.16 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

• Minnesota Lynx +5 (-110) vs. New York Liberty
• Sabrina Ionescu OVER 6.5 Assists (-110) – 0.5 unit

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Minnesota Lynx +5 (-110) vs. New York Liberty

I think the Lynx are underrated in this game – and they have honestly been underrated all season.

Minnesota ranks No. 1 in the WNBA in net rating at +12.9, and the Lynx already have a double-digit win over the Liberty this season.

Now, New York is No. 2 in net rating and has the best record in the league, but I am worried if it doesn’t have Betnijah Laney-Hamilton or Vandersloot, who both sat out the team’s last game. Vandersloot has missed seven straight for personal reasons. 

This matchup can’t get much better for a Commissioner’s Cup title, as it features the No. 1 defense (Minnesota) taking on the No. 1 offense (New York). 

However, it’s been the Lynx who have dominated against the spread this season, going 12-4 ATS and 6-1 ATS as an underdog. 

Meanwhile, the Liberty are just 7-11 against the spread overall and 6-11 ATS when favored.

I think these teams are a lot more evenly matched than this line suggests, and if Minnesota’s defense plays up to the same level we’ve seen in 2024, it should be able to keep this close. 

Sabrina Ionescu OVER 6.5 Assists (-110) – 0.5 unit

The reason I’m only putting a half unit on this play is because I think there is a chance Courtney Vandersloot (personal) could return for this game. 

Sloot has missed the last seven games for personal reasons, but she was listed as personal/conditioning on the injury report for Sunday’s game, a sign that she may be ramping up for a return. 

However, in the seven games that she’s missed, Sabrina Ionescu has been amazing. 

The star guard is averaging 22.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 8.9 assists per game over that stretch while shooting 42.4 percent from 3-point range. The Liberty are 6-1 in those matchups. 

I love the assist prop for Sabrina, as she’s the primary creator when Sloot is out, clearing 6.5 dimes in six of seven games (six in a row). 

In fact, over this six-game stretch, Ionescu hasn’t had fewer than eight assists in a game, clearing 10 dimes on two occasions.

Trust the Liberty point guard to lead the offense – especially if Vandersloot is out – on Tuesday. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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