Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Sabrina Ionescu, Lynx-Liberty Game 1)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for Game 1of the WNBA Finals between the Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty.

New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

The WNBA Finals kick off on Thursday night, and the two top seeds in the league – the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx – will play to crown a champion. 

New York enters this best-of-five series with a lot of rest, as it closed out the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces in four games in the WNBA Semifinals.

New York was in the Finals last season, but it was knocked off by Las Vegas. Now, two-time WNBA champion Breanna Stewart has a chance to win her third title – first in New York – after the Liberty went 32-8 in the regular season and have dominated offensively. 

However, the Lynx aren’t going to be a pushover. The No. 2 defense in the WNBA, Minnesota knocked off the Connecticut Sun in five games in the semis despite losing Game 1 at home.

Minnesota has also been an elite team against the spread this season, especially as an underdog.

That’s the spot the Lynx find themselves in for Game 1, and I’m playing a side and a prop for this matchup. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 80-70 (+4.73 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

• Minnesota Lynx +6 (-108) vs. New York Liberty – 0.5 unit
• Sabrina Ionescu OVER 27.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110) – 0.5 unit

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Minnesota Lynx +6 (-108) vs. New York Liberty – 0.5 unit

There are several trends in Minnesota’s favor on Thursday night, even though the Liberty have the rest advantage since they closed their series out in four games in the semifinals.

This season, the Lynx are 16-7 against the spread on the road, 12-4 against the spread as underdogs, and 30-18 against the spread overall. 

On the Liberty side, they are just 7-17-1 against the spread at home, a concerning mark when the team is laying six points in Game 1. 

In the regular season meetings (non-Commissioner's Cup) between these teams, the Lynx won by 17 at home, nine on the road, and lost by nine on the road as well. 

The Liberty offense is No. 1 in the league, but Minnesota has the No. 2 defensive rating, which should make this an interesting series. 

If anyone can keep up with the vaunted New York offense, it may be the Lynx. They led the league in the regular season in 3-point shooting percentage, and they’ve shown in the playoffs that they’re not fully reliant on Collier having a big game to win.

Courtney Williams, Kayla McBride, and Alanna Smith have all come up big in the postseason, and Minnesota has some impressive depth on the roster that wore the Sun down in the semis. 

New York may end up winning this game, but it certainly hasn’t been automatic against the spread at home. 

I’ll take the points and expect a closer game in the opening matchup of the WNBA Finals. 

Sabrina Ionescu OVER 27.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110) – 0.5 unit

I’m going back to the well with a Sabrina Ionescut prop, as the Liberty guard has been impressive in six games this postseason. 

Here’s a quick look at her PRA numbers through those games – even though she turned in a clunker in Game 3 against Las Vegas: 

• Game 1 vs. Atlanta: 17 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists (27 PRA)
• Game 2 vs. Atlanta: 36 points, 1 rebound, 9 assists (46 PRA)
• Game 1 vs. Las Vegas: 21 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists (30 PRA)
• Game 2 vs. Las Vegas: 24 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists (38 PRA)
• Game 3 vs. Las Vegas: 4 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists (14 PRA)
• Game 4 vs. Las Vegas: 22 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists (31 PRA)

Ionescu has cleared 27.5 PRA in four of her six playoff games, picking up at least nine rebounds and assists in every game.

That’s huge for her floor in this prop, and I think she can take advantage of a Lynx team that allowed Ty Harris to score 20 points in Game 4 of the semis and allowed a couple of big games to Marina Mabrey as well. 

Minnesota has a strong defense, but Ionescu has been arguably the Liberty’s top scorer in the playoffs. With Defensive Player of the Year Napheesa Collier likely shadowing Stewart, I’ll bet on Sabrina to have a big Game 1.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.