Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Bucks-Cavs, Thunder-Heat)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the three-game NBA slate on Friday, Dec. 20.

Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo and company are underdogs tonight. / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

Thursday’s NBA action featured a loaded 13-game slate with some extremely surprising results as the Boston Celtics, Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets were all upset and the Minnesota Timberwolves and Golden State Warriors suffered awful blowout losses.

Friday won’t be as entertaining, as there are only three games in action, but stars like Joel Embiid, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jimmy Butler, Donovan Mitchell and Giannis Antetokounmpo could all be on the floor.

The game of the night is likely between the Milwaukee Bucks and Cleveland Cavaliers, and I have a pick for that matchup – as well as the Miami Heat-Oklahoma City Thunder clash – on Friday. 

Let’s dive into the breakdowns for these bets! 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 84-85-4 (-2.78 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1094-1030-26 (+35.30 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Milwaukee Bucks +9 (-108) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
• Oklahoma City Thunder-Miami Heat UNDER 216.5 (-110)
• Two Player Prop Parlay (-128)

Milwaukee Bucks +9 (-108) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Damian Lillard won’t play for Milwaukee tonight, but I think it’s a little undervalued as a nine-point underdog coming off an NBA Cup title earlier this week. 

Milwaukee is 3-2 against the spread as a road underdog while the Cavs are 11-4 ATS as home favorites, winning those games by an average margin of over 12 points per game. 

While this spread wouldn’t usually be this wide if both teams were healthy, oddsmakers seem to be heavily factoring in Lillard missing this game. Despite that, the Bucks are 2-1 straight up when Dame sits this season. 

Over the last 10 games, Milwaukee is in the top 10 in the NBA in net rating, sitting at +5.3 in net rating while the Cavs are at +8.0. The Bucks have played a lot better after a slow start, and Giannis has simply been willing them to wins – including an NBA Cup title. 

These teams played twice earlier in the season with the Cavs winning by one and two points in those contests. This is too many points to lay on Friday. 

Oklahoma City Thunder-Miami Heat UNDER 216.5 (-110)

Oklahoma City is one of the best UNDER teams in the NBA, going 16-11 on the UNDER and ranking No. 1 in the NBA in defensive rating. 

The Heat are a solid defensive team as well, ranking 13th in the league in defensive rating and sixth in opponent points per game. OKC is first in the NBA in opponent points per game.

Both of these teams love to slow the game down as well. Miami is 29th in pace while OKC is 21st, and I think this could turn into a defensive slugfest – especially with the Thunder playing the second night of a back-to-back. 

The UNDER has hit in two of OKC’s four games on the second night of a back-to-back, and if they do end up sitting a rotation player or two tonight, it should only help this game end up as a low-scoring one. 

Player Prop Parlay (-128)

• Bobby Portis 10+ Points
• Isaiah Hartenstein 10+ Rebounds

Bobby Portis 10+ Points

Damian Lillard is out tonight, and Bobby Portis has thrived in two games without him, scoring 17 and 21 points while taking at least 15 shots in each game.

Portis is averaging 13.1 points per game this season, putting up at least 10 in 18 of his 24 games. With Dame out, I expect Bobby P to have a bigger role on offense than his 11.5 shots per game to date.

Isaiah Hartenstein 10+ Rebounds

Oklahoma City Thunder big man Isaiah Hartenstein has a prime matchup tonight, as he’s taking on a Miami Heat team that is 26th in opponent rebounds per game. 

On the season, the Thunder big man is averaging 12.3 rebounds per game on 21.4 rebound chances. He’s also grabbed 10 boards in nine of his 11 appearances in the 2024-25 season. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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