Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Giannis Antetokounmpo, Suns-Clippers and More)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Wednesday, Oct. 23.

Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo. / Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

After getting a small taste of NBA action on Tuesday night, the league truly returns with a 10-game slate on Wednesday, Oct. 23. 

Two of the biggest matchups on Wednesday – the Milwaukee Bucks vs. Philadelphia 76ers and Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Clippers – are both a part of today’s best bets, as there are four plays (one side, one total, and two props) that I’m placing. 

Early in the season, it’s important to feel out some of these teams – and as I always stress – watch as many games as possible (!!) to get a feel on how to bet in the prop market. 

Still, there are a couple of players that I believe are undervalued in their 2024-25 season debut matchups. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 4-1 (+1.53 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1014-946-22 (+39.62 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Phoenix Suns -4.5 (-108) vs. Los Angeles Clippers – 0.5 unit
• Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 28.5 Points (-105)
• Orlando Magic-Miami Heat UNDER 208.5 (-112) – 0.5 unit
• Brandin Podziemski OVER 8.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

Phoenix Suns -4.5 (-108) vs. Los Angeles Clippers – 0.5 unit

The Los Angeles Clippers will make their 2024-25 season debut against the Phoenix Suns, but they won’t have superstar Kawhi Leonard (knee) in action.

So, we’re getting the James Harden show at the new Intuit Dome, something I’m certainly not sold on. 

I understand that the Clippers have been a playoff team in the Leonard era, but with him out in Game 1 of the season, I can’t get behind them as short underdogs.

Let’s be honest, the Clippers’ scoring after Harden is truly up in the air this season, and while Ty Lue’s club has a lot of great wing defenders, can anyone truly shut down Bradley Beal, Kevin Durant, and Devin Booker for an entire 48 minutes?

The addition of Tyus Jones should help the Suns offensively now that they have a true point guard, and on paper this Clippers team is much, much worse than Phoenix.

After Harden’s scoring has dipped in the last few seasons, I can’t see him turning to a new gear where he starts playing at an MVP level. 

I’ll gladly lay the points with the Suns on opening night.

Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 28.5 Points (-105)

The only full unit play I have on Wednesday night is for Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo. 

Giannis has dominated the Philadelphia 76ers in recent matchups, scoring 34, 33, 23 30, and 32 points in his last five games against them.

With the Sixers banged up (Paul George and Joel Embiid are out) and lacking size down low, Giannis could be in line for a big game in the season opener.

Outside of Andre Drummond, the Sixers lack size in the frontcourt, as Caleb Martin and Kelly Oubre Jr. may end up playing power forward minutes. 

Last season, Giannis had one of the most underrated campaigns in a long time, averaging 30.4 points per game while shooting a career-high 61.1 percent from the field. 

With Khris Middleton (ankles) out for the Bucks on Wednesday, Giannis and Damian Lillard should get all the shots they can handle. I love the two-time MVP at any number under 30.5 against Philly. 

Orlando Magic-Miami Heat UNDER 208.5 (-112) – 0.5 unit

The two best teams in the Southeast Division face off in Miami – on the night the Miami Heat will honor Pat Riley. 

This matchup has UNDER written all over it, especially since neither team really added a ton of offense in the offseason.

Miami finished with the No. 5 defensive rating in the NBA last season, but it was a bottom 10 team in offensive rating. The Orlando Magic followed a similar profile, ranking third in defensive rating and 22nd in offensive rating.

Plus, neither team looked to push the ball in the 2023-24 campaign. These teams were 29th (Miami) and 27th (Orlando) in pace last season. 

Even with the addition of KCP, I don’t expect the Magic to suddenly become an elite offense in the 2024-25 campaign. Yes, Miami now has a full season of Terry Rozier, but I’m not sold on these teams playing a barnburner on opening night.

Last season, two of the four meetings between these squads fell short of 208.5 points. I’ll bet on that happening again on Wednesday. 

Brandin Podziemski OVER 8.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

Is Golden State Warriors guard Brandin Podziemski undervalued in the season opener against the Portland Trail Blazers?

Podz should step into a major role offensively this season now that Klay Thompson is a Dallas Maverick, and he scored nine, 12, and 16 points in his final three preseason games.

There were reports this offseason that the Warriors want Podziemski to attempt close to 10 3-pointers per game – and while I think that’s a lofty, lofty goal – I do expect his usage to jump in Year 2. 

Last season, the Warriors guard averaged 9.2 points per game on just 8.1 field goal attempts – shooting 45.4 percent from the field and 38.5 percent from beyond the arc. 

This number is way too low for a player who is expected to make a second-year leap – Golden State is counting on it – after finishing fifth in the Rookie of the Year voting last season.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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