Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jalen Williams, Evan Mobley, Clippers-Thunder)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Monday, Nov. 11.

Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jalen Williams. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Injuries have rocked the NBA over the last week, as Ja Morant, Zion Williams, Kevin Durant and Chet Holmgren have all gone down for extended periods. 

Now, the Oklahoma City Thunder (without Holmgren) and the New Orleans Pelicans (without Zion) are amongst the 10 teams in action on Monday night. 

The biggest story on Monday though is the 11-0 Cleveland Cavaliers, as they’re favored against the Chicago Bulls on the road – a chance to extend their winning streak to 12. Cleveland is the only undefeated team left in the NBA so far this season. 

It’s been a slow start this season when it comes to my NBA plays, but with the NBA Cup starting tomorrow, let’s use Monday as a springboard for some positive momentum. 

Here’s a breakdown of the three bets I’ve placed, and three more to consider – barring some injury issues – on Monday. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 29-39-1 (-4.93 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1039-984-23 (+33.15 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Los Angeles Clippers +6.5 (-105) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
• Jalen Williams OVER 25.5 Points and Rebounds (-125) – 0.5 unit
• Evan Mobley Double-Double (+130) -- 0.5 unit

Los Angeles Clippers +6.5 (-105) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City is 7-3 against the spread on the season and 3-2 against the spread as a home favorite, but the Holmgren injury looms especially large on Monday. 

Losing the last true center on the roster that was healthy is a huge problem for the Thunder, as big man Ivica Zubac has gotten off to a great start for the Los Angeles Clippers this season. 

OKC doesn’t have anyone who can match up with him, and the Thunder have already struggled on the glass (28th in rebounding percentage) in the 2024-25 season. 

Meanwhile, the Clippers are a perfect 3-0 on the road and have won their last four games. While Los Angeles doesn’t have a ton of star power, players like Norman Powell (25.5 points per game) have stepped up, and Ty Lue has a ton of rangy wings he can rotate in to guard Jalen Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. 

OKC did beat the Clippers by 13 points in Los Angeles, but the Thunder look like a much different team now without Chet. 

With this matchup also being the second night of a back-to-back for OKC, I’ll take the points with the Clippers on Monday. The Clips are 6-4 against the spread overall this season. 

Jalen Williams OVER 25.5 Points and Rebounds (-125) – 0.5 unit

With Holmgren out due to a hip fracture that he suffered in the Oklahoma City Thunder’s loss to Golden State on Sunday, Jalen Williams could get a boost for OKC on Monday.

Not only is the former lottery pick going to play a lot of power forward with the Thunder banged up, but one would expect some of Holmgren’s shots to be distributed to Williams in this OKC attack. 

So far this season, J-Dub is averaging 19.1 points and 6.2 rebounds per game while shooting 49.1 percent from the field and 38.3 percent from 3 on 15.9 shots per game. In theory, he should be asked to carry a bigger load on the glass with the Thunder likely having to play small until one of Jaylin Williams or Isaiah Hartenstein can return to action. 

Williams has cleared 25.5 points and rebounds in five games this season, but if he sees a boost on the glass tonight, I think he’ll easily clear this against the Clippers. He picked up seven boards in the last meeting between these teams. 

Evan Mobley Double-Double (+130) -- 0.5 unit

Cavs big man Evan Mobley has a dream matchup on Monday against the Bulls, a team that he torched for 25 points and 13 rebounds in his last meeting against them last season. 

Not only do the Bulls rank dead last in the NBA in points in the paint allowed per game in the 2024-25 campaign, but they are also 27th in opponent rebounds per game. 

That sets up well for Mobley to pick up his fourth double-double of the season on Monday night. So far this season, the former lottery pick is averaging 18.4 points and 8.5 rebounds per game, but he’s coming off a 23-point, 16-rebound game against the Brooklyn Nets.

Mobley is going to score 10 points – he has at least 13 in every game this season – so we’re betting on him to pick up 10 or more boards on Monday. It’s hard to find a much better matchup for the Cavs big man to come through. 

Other plays to consider (waiting on injury clarification)

• Keegan Murray Double-Double (+260)

Murray has been a beast on the glass this season, averaging 9.0 rebounds per game. He’s picked up at least 10 boards in five of his last six games, yet oddsmakers have him at +260 to record a double-double in this game. He’s picked up a double-double in four of his last six. 

• Bilal Coulibaly OVER 14.5 Points (-105)

Some injury concerns with both Washington and Houston on the second night for a back-to-back. But, over his last seven games, Coulibaly is averaging 18.3 points per game on 12.1 field goal attempts and 4.4 3-point attempts per game. 

• Sacramento Kings Moneyline (-115) vs. San Antonio Spurs

Another one I may add depending upon the injury report – the Kings played an OT game (and won) against the Phoenix Suns on Sunday. 

The Spurs are coming off a bad loss at home to Utah, and they may be a little overvalued in a pick’em for this game. However, it is possible Kings rest players on the second night of a back-to-back. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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