Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Joel Embiid, Steph Curry and Giannis in NBA Cup)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Tuesday, Nov. 12.

Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry. / Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

The 2024 NBA Cup kicks off on Tuesday night with eight games, as everyone looks to get off to a fast start in Group Play. 

Klay Thompson returns to the Bay Area tonight, as the Dallas Mavericks hit the road as underdogs to play Steph Curry and the 8-2 Golden State Warriors. There’s a prop that I love in this matchup. 

In the Eastern Conference, Joel Embiid is BACK for the Philadelphia 76ers, and he’ll make his season debut against the New York Knicks in a rematch of last season’s first-round playoff matchup. 

Fresh off of a sweep on Monday night (could we be back?), I’m eyeing six different plays, including four props, for Tuesday’s NBA Cup action. 

CAN YOU SAY SWEEP?

Clippers +6.5 ✅
Jalen Williams OVER 25.5 P+R ✅
Evan Mobley Double-Double ✅ https://t.co/sv8AcCyVSJ pic.twitter.com/Y0ZkUHyvRe

— Peter Dewey (@peterdewey2) November 12, 2024

Picks for Embiid, Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo and more should keep us locked for the entire slate on Tuesday night. Let’s break ‘em down. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 32-39-1 (-2.93 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1042-984-23 (+35.16 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Joel Embiid OVER 24.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit
• Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 32.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit
• Steph Curry OVER 9.5 Rebounds and Assists (-142) – 0.5 unit
• Charlotte Hornets +8 (-115) vs. Orlando Magic – 0.5 unit
• Mikal Bridges OVER 13.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit
• Minnesota Timberwolves -8.5 (-110) vs. Portland Trail Blazers – 0.5 unit

Joel Embiid OVER 24.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

Embiid may end up being on a minutes limit on Tuesday, but let’s not forget that he was averaging about a point per minute during the 2023-24 season before he went down with a knee injury.

So, at 24.5 points on Tuesday, Embiid feels like great value, especially given the matchup. 

The Knicks rank 21st in the league in defensive rating, and Karl-Anthony Towns has been the single-worst player defending in the restricted area this season. 

Per @TimBontemps on the Hoop Collective:

Players are shooting 32-for-35 against Karl-Anthony Towns in the restricted area this season.

The Knicks simply cannot expect to be successful in the postseason if that remains the case.

— Peter Dewey (@peterdewey2) November 11, 2024

Embiid may have a field day in the paint against a Knicks team that he averaged 33.0 points, 10.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game while shooting 44.4 percent from the field during the first round of the playoffs. 

The Sixers are going to run offense through Embiid whenever he’s on the floor, and there should be more shots for him with Tyrese Maxey (hamstring) out. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 32.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit

Damian Lillard is out with a concussion on Tuesday, setting the stage for a massive game for Giannis Antetokounmpo against the Toronto Raptors. 

Giannis should get all the shots he can handle, and Toronto (30th in defensive rating) is one of the best matchups he could have tonight. 

So far this season, Giannis has four games with more than 32.5 points, and he may take a season-high in shot attempts on Tuesday with Dame out. Overall, Giannis is averaging 21.2 shots per game, and he attempted 29 (!!) in a 43-point performance against the Celtics on Sunday. 

Toronto has not defended the paint well – 25th in opponent points in the paint per game – and not having Scottie Barnes takes away one player who would potentially match up with Giannis tonight. 

Expect the Milwaukee Bucks star to have a massive game in an attempt to get his team on track. 

Steph Curry OVER 9.5 Rebounds and Assists (-142) – 0.5 unit

Steph Curry is averaging 4.6 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game this season, clearing 9.5 rebounds and assists in four of his seven games. 

Since returning from his ankle injury, Curry is 2-for-2 on this prop when he plays more than 30 minutes, and I expect him to have a major workload against Dallas with the Warriors set as three-point favorites. 

Prior to last season, Curry had averaged over 10.0 rebounds and assists in 11 straight seasons. He’s a value at this number on Tuesday. 

Charlotte Hornets +8 (-115) vs. Orlando Magic – 0.5 unit

Even with their two-game winning streak, the Orlando Magic are just 4-7 against the spread this season, and I can’t get behind this team when it’s favored by this much without Paolo Banchero. 

The Magic enter this game 25th in the NBA in offensive rating, scoring 115 points or fewer in all but one game (the win over Washington) since Banchero went down. In fact, the Magic have two games where they failed to reach 100 points over that stretch, and they’ve lost four of six games without Paolo. 

The only wins? Against the lowly Wizards and the banged-up New Orleans Pelicans. 

I think Charlotte could be live to pull off an upset in this matchup with LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller both in the lineup – yet we’re getting eight points tonight? 

Charlotte is 6-4 against the spread this season, including an impressive 3-1 ATS as a road dog.

While the Hornets have their own flaws – 21st in offensive rating, 20th in net rating – they aren’t significantly worse than this Orlando team when Paolo is out. 

Mikal Bridges OVER 13.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit

I’m buying low on Mikal Bridges after he scored just eight points in 42 minutes in a loss to the Indiana Pacers on Sunday. 

Bridges is playing a ton of minutes for the Knicks – 37.8 per game – and he’ll likely have a major role again in Philly on Tuesday. 

In his nine games this season, Bridges has 14 or more points in seven of them, averaging 15.3 points per game while shooting 46.7 percent from the field. Mikal is taking 13.6 shots and 7.0 3s per game, and he’s simply off a bad shooting game (0-for-6 from 3) in the loss to Indiana.

Philly ranks 20th in the league in defensive rating, so I’m going to buy low on Bridges to get back to his season average in this matchup. 

Minnesota Timberwolves -8.5 (-110) vs. Portland Trail Blazers – 0.5 unit

Portland is 28th in the NBA in net rating this season, and it was blown out by 25 points by the Timberwolves (in Minnesota) earlier this month. 

The Blazers are just 5-5-1 against the spread despite being set as major underdogs in a lot of their games. They’ve been especially bad as of late, losing by 45 against a banged up Memphis team, 25 to Minnesota and 13 to the San Antonio Spurs over their last three games. 

The Wolves rank sixth in the league in net rating and inside the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating so far this season. 

The last time these teams played, Portland could not handle Anthony Edwards (37 points), and I expect Minnesota to dominate in a similar fashion in this one. Even on the road, I expect the Wolves to win this one in a blowout.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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