Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Nikola Jokic, Brandon Miller, Celtics, Thunder)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Monday, Nov. 4.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Every NBA team is in action on Monday, giving NBA bettors plenty of opportunities to wager on the action. 

I’ve done my best to narrow down the top picks for Monday’s action, as there will be an off day Tuesday for Election Day before all 30 teams return to action again on Wednesday. 

So, let’s break down the picks for a massive Monday night slate: 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 20-28-1 (-4.99 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1030-973-23 (+33.10 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-130) – 0.5 unit
• Brandon Miller OVER 16.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit
• Nikola Jokic OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-115) – 0.5 unit
• Warriors-Celtics-Thunder ML Parlay (-162)

Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-130) – 0.5 unit

New York Knicks big man Karl-Anthony Towns got off to a slow start in terms of his 3-point attempts (only 2.0 per game over his first three games), but he’s picked things up since.

Over his last two games, KAT is shooting 7-for-11 from downtown (he’s 64.7 percent on the season) attempting at least five 3s in back-to-back games.

Now, he takes on a Houston team that is allowing opponents to shoot 37.4 percent from 3 – 21st in the NBA. 

As long as KAT is willing to take a few shots from deep, he’s in a prime spot to go OVER. He’s cleared this prop in three of five games, including a game where he went 2-for-2 from beyond the arc. 

Brandon Miller OVER 16.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit

Brandon Miller made his return to the lineup against Boston on Saturday, playing 31 minutes and scoring 16 points – although he shot just 6-for-18 from the field. 

Miller will get a crack at the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday, who rank 18th in the NBA in defensive rating. 

Given Miller’s usage (18 shots in 31 minutes), it’s hard to fade him at such a low number after he averaged 17.3 points per game as a rookie. Charlotte has been frisky early on this season, and there’s a chance that the Hornets get to face the Wolves without Rudy Gobert (questionable) in the middle. 

Nikola Jokic OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-115) – 0.5 unit

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic gets a second matchup with the Toronto Raptors on Monday, a team he had 40 points and 10 rebounds against in an overtime win last week. 

Jokic is averaging 12.3 boards per game, but he’s seen a ton of rebound chances (22.8) per game. 

Toronto does come into this game with the No. 1 rebounding percentage in the NBA, but Jokic’s rebounds prop has been almost exclusively at 12.5 or 13.5 this season. Grabbing him at 11.5 – off of a 16-rebound game – is worth a shot on Monday.  

Warriors-Celtics-Thunder ML Parlay (-162)

Golden State Warriors

Washington may have two wins on the season, but beating the Atlanta Hawks is not something that is going to get me excited about the Wizards in this game.

Washington has lost by a combined 59 points in its three other games – home against Miami, home against Cleveland, and home against Boston. 

So, I’m far from sold on the Wizards, who have not lost a game by less than 19 points, covering the 10 points tonight against Golden State, especially if Steph Curry (ankle, upgraded to questionable) returns to the lineup. 

Golden State’s defense could be the difference in this game, especially with Kyle Kuzma out, as it ranks No. 2 in the league in defensive rating and No. 1 in net rating.

Boston Celtics

Boston is taking on Atlanta, who is playing the second night of a back-to-back after upsetting the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday. The C’s won’t have Jaylen Brown (hip) in this one, but they’re 10-point favorites and should be able to handle this rebuilding Hawks squad.

Atlanta comes into this game with the No. 28 defensive rating in the NBA, a problem against Boston’s elite 3-point shooting offense. 

Oklahoma City Thunder

I simply cannot back the Orlando Magic right now with Paolo Banchero out.

They scored just 85 points on Sunday in a blowout loss, and they’re just 4-10 all-time now when Banchero is out of the lineup. 

Meanwhile, the Thunder ranks No. 1 in the league in defensive rating (95.1) by a wide margin. The next closest team to OKC is Golden State at 101.0, and the Thunder are the No. 2 team in the league in net rating as well. 

Orlando is a lowly 2-5 against the spread so far this season, and even as a double-digit underdog, I can’t get behind it after watching its losses to Cleveland (by 11) and Dallas (by 23). 

With such a big slate, make sure to follow along on my Twitter (@peterdewey2) and BetStamp (@peter2dewey) for any additional plays.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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