Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Nikola Jokic, Jalen Johnson, DeMar DeRozan)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Monday, Nov. 25.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is a great prop target on Monday night. / Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

Monday’s NBA action features a bunch of teams on the second night of a back-to-back, but I like many player props throughout the slate.

For today’s Peter’s Points, I’ve narrowed things down to my four favorite prop plays, including one for Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic against the New York Knicks.

I’m rolling with half-unit bets on all of these, as I missed better numbers for both Brandon Miller and Jalen Johnson earlier in the day. However, I still like their props at their current numbers.

After a 2-1 showing on Sunday, which pushed it closer to two units up on the season, let’s have a big Monday to start Thanksgiving Week!  

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 57-53-1 (+1.88 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1067-998-23 (+39.97 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Brandon Miller UNDER 23.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit
• Jalen Johnson OVER 13.5 Rebounds and Assists (-130) – 0.5 unit
• Nikola Jokic Triple-Double (+100) – 0.5 unit
• DeMar DeRozan OVER 3.5 Rebounds (-125) – 0.5 unit

Brandon Miller UNDER 23.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

Charlotte Hornets second-year wing Brandon Miller has been on fire as of late, scoring 32, 38, and 29 points in his last three games, pushing his season average to 19.8 points per game. 

However, he’s only cleared 23.5 points on one other occasion this season, failing to do so in eight of his 12 games. Now, he’s taking on an Orlando Magic team that ranks No. 3 in the NBA in defensive rating and held him to just eight points in 37 minutes earlier this season.

I’ll sell high on Miller on Monday, even with the Hornets shorthanded without Miles Bridges, Tre Mann, and Grant Williams. He’s simply been too inconsistent shooting the ball (42.1 percent from the field) to back against an elite defense with several options to defend him on the wing. 

Jalen Johnson OVER 13.5 Rebounds and Assists (-130) – 0.5 unit

Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson has become a triple-double threat on occasion this season, and he’s rebounding the ball well, averaging 10.4 per game. In addition to that, Johnson is averaging 5.3 assists per game, yet he’s set at just 13.5 rebounds and assists on Monday against Dallas.

Johnson has cleared 13.5 R+A in 11 of his 16 games this season and four of his last five. Over this five-game stretch, he’s averaging 11.2 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game.

Johnson could push this number in rebounds alone – he has five games with 13 or more boards – making him an ideal target against a Dallas team playing the second night of a back-to-back. 

Nikola Jokic Triple-Double (+100) – 0.5 unit

Now, I like Jokic’s assists prop against the Knicks – set at 9.5 – but why not take him to get a triple-double at plus money?

He’s averaging 30.3 points, 13.9 rebounds, and 11.3 assists per game on the season, clearing 10 rebounds in 10 of his 12 games and 10 assists in eight of his 12 games. 

The Knicks (21st in defensive rating) could be without Karl-Anthony Towns (questionable) in this game, limiting them even further in how they’ll guard Jokic. The Joker is simply a must-bet at even money against a New York team that ranks 16th in the NBA in opponent assists per game. 

DeMar DeRozan OVER 3.5 Rebounds (-125) – 0.5 unit

Back to the well with Sacramento Kings star DeMar DeRozan?

This prop hit for us in the Kings’ loss to the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday night, and DeRozan now has at least five rebounds in four straight games.

Overall, the veteran wing is averaging 4.3 rebounds per game, and now he has a dream matchup against an Oklahoma City team that ranks dead last in the NBA in rebounding percentage.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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