Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Bam Adebayo)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Thursday, Feb. 13, including a pick for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a great prop target tonight. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Thursday is the final day to get a few NBA bets in before the All-Star break, as the regular season action in the Association doesn’t resume again until Wednesday, Feb. 19. 

10 teams are in action on Thursday night, and they are all playing the second night of a back-to-back, which makes it a little trickier to bet on a side with injury reports yet to be released.

However, I’m eyeing a pair of player props to close out the unofficial first half of the season, including one for MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander against the division rival Minnesota Timberwolves. 

While I’m just outside of being positive in the 2024-25 season, there’s still a long way to go after the All-Star break. Here’s a look at my two plays for the Feb. 13 action! 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 146-147-4 (-1.98 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1156-1092-26 (+36.11 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 31.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit
• Bam Adebayo OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-105) – 0.5 unit

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 31.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit

SGA is coming off a 32-point game against Miami on Wednesday night, and he’s picked up 32 or more points in seven of his last 11 games, averaging 36.8 points per game. 

The usage for the Oklahoma City Thunder star has been huge this season, and he’s attempted at least 20 shots in 14 of his 20 games since Jan. 1 – averaging 22.4 shots per game. That kind of usage for a player that is as efficient as SGA (52.7 percent from the field) makes him a nightly threat to score 30-plus points. 

Earlier this season, SGA had 40 points against this Minnesota team, and it’ll be interesting to see how the Wolves look on the second night of a back-to-back since Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle (out), Donte DiVincenzo (out) and Mike Conley have all been on the injury report recently.

SGA, who is averaging 32.6 points per game, is a must bet with his prop number this low.

Bam Adebayo OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-105) – 0.5 unit

Miami Heat big man Bam Adebayo has an ideal matchup on Thursday night against a banged-up Dallas Mavericks squad. 

Adebayo has played some of the best basketball of his season as of late, and he’s averaging 19.0 points and 11.5 rebounds per game since Jan. 17 (13 games). 

Bam had 15 boards on Wednesday against Oklahoma City, and he’s cleared 11.5 boards in four of his last six games. The reason this is such a great matchup is that this Dallas team doesn’t have a center right now with Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford and Dwight Powell all out.

On Wednesday, the Mavs allowed nine rebounds to Jimmy Butler and eight to backup center Kevon Looney, even though Looney played just 15 minutes. 

Adebayo is averaging 18.8 rebound chances per game over his last 10 matchups, so he has a real chance to clear this prop on Thursday night.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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