Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Celtics-Bucks and More)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Sunday, Nov. 10.

OKC guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

A loaded Sunday (11 games) in the NBA calls for several best bets, and I’m back with four plays for today’s action. 

The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks highlight the early chunk of games as they face off for the second time this season. But Sunday’s action is filled with great games, including some playoff rematches: 

• New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
• Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets
• Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
• Sacramento Kings vs. Phoenix Suns
• Miami Heat vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

With these matchups – and many more – all happening on Sunday, it’s only right that we get in on the action. So, here’s one side, two player props, and a player prop parlay to consider on Nov. 10. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 28-36-1 (-3.87 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1035-977-23 (+34.22 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 27.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit
• Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-110) – 0.5 unit
• Boston Celtics -4 (-115) vs. Milwaukee Bucks – 0.5 unit
• Brandon Miller-Tre Mann Points Parlay (-145) – 0.5 unit

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 27.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

Oklahoma City Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander rarely has a points prop below 29.5, but he’s facing a Golden State team that ranks No. 2 in the NBA in defensive rating this season on Sunday. 

Still, I’m buying SGA in this matchup. 

Golden State was blown out on Friday by the Cleveland Cavaliers, allowing 27 points to Darius Garland and 136 points overall in that matchup. SGA torched the Warriors last season, putting up 40 and 38 points in his final two games against them in the regular season.

This season, we’ve seen SGA’s scoring average go down (26.3 points per game), but the Thunder have won a ton of blowouts that have limited his minutes. Hopefully, Golden State can keep this game a little closer after getting off to a fast start to the season.

Plus, SGA still has five games (out of nine) where he’s scored 28 or more points. We know that the MVP candidate is going to push 20-shot attempts, and I think he’s a buy-low candidate in one of the best matchups on the board in the NBA. 

Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-110) – 0.5 unit

New York Knicks big man Karl-Anthony Towns has been dominant on the glass this season, averaging 12.8 rebounds in 32.1 minutes per game.

Earlier this season, KAT grabbed 15 boards against the Pacers, who have struggled on the glass with Isaiah Jackson and James Wiseman both done for the year. Indiana ranks 27th in the league in rebounding percentage, so KAT should have his way on the boards again. 

For the season, KAT is averaging 18.6 rebound chances per game, and he’s played a lot of minutes with Mitchell Robinson (ankle) still out for New York. 

I don’t mind sprinkling on KAT at +280 to grab 15 or more boards again on Sunday. He’s picked up at least 12 in four of his eight games, putting up 15+ in three of those matchups.  

Boston Celtics -4 (-115) vs. Milwaukee Bucks – 0.5 unit

The Boston Celtics upgraded star Jaylen Brown (hip) to questionable for this game, and he made the trip with the team to Milwaukee.

I’m hedging that Brown will suit up in this matchup, and even if he doesn’t Milwaukee has been downright awful in the 2024-25 season.

The Bucks were blown out by the Knicks on Friday, and they sit at just 2-7 on the season with their only wins coming against a shorthanded Philly team and the Utah Jazz.

The Bucks are also just 3-6 against the spread while Boston is 5-5, winning games by an average margin of 11.0 points per game. 

Boston has the No. 4 net rating in the NBA while Milwaukee is just 21st, and the return of Brown would certainly raise the C’s ceiling in this matchup. Brown had 30 in the first meeting between these teams – an 11-point Boston win. 

This is a solid price to back the C’s at on Sunday. 

Brandon Miller-Tre Mann Points Parlay (-145) – 0.5 unit

• Brandon Miller 15+ Points
• Tre Mann 10+ Points

There are a couple of Charlotte Hornets scorers I like on Sunday against the Philadelphia 76ers (25th in defensive rating this season) with wing Miles Bridges ruled out for the second straight game. 

Brandon Miller

Miller missed some time with an injury earlier this season, but he had a season-high 29 points in his last game against Indiana with Bridges out of the lineup. 

Since returning to the lineup, Miller has attempted double-digit shots in every game, scoring 16, 10, 19 and 29 points. Last season, the former No. 2 overall pick averaged 17.3 points on 14.6 shots per game.

He should see his usage increase again tonight with Bridges sidelined. 

Tre Mann

Guard Tre Mann has looked like a gem for the Hornets since they added him in the Gordon Hayward trade last season. 

Mann enters this game averaging 15.9 points per game while shooting 45.8 percent from the field and 40.0 percent from 3-point range. He thrived when Miller was out, and now he should see an expanded role on Sunday without Bridges.

Without Bridges against the Pacers, Mann had 14 points on 6-of-13 shooting off the bench (27 minutes). 

He’s now scored in double figures in all but one game this season, attempting 10 or more shots in six of his nine games.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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