Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Trey Murphy III, Evan Mobley, Cavs-Celtics)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA Cup action on Tuesday, Nov. 19.

New Orleans Pelicans guard/forward Trey Murphy III is an elite prop target tonight. / Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

After a perfect 2-for-2 night on Monday, I’ve officially made it back to .500 (48-48-1) in this season’s NBA best bets, and we’re just in the positive.

It was a rough start to the season, but things appear to be turning at the right time as there are six NBA Cup matchups to bet on Tuesday night.

The action is headlined by the 15-0 Cleveland Cavaliers taking on the defending champion Boston Celtics, but there are a ton of stars in action tonight across the slate from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to Luka Doncic to LeBron James and Anthony Davis. 

So, how are we betting on Tuesday’s action?

Here’s a breakdown of my top plays for Nov. 19. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 48-48-1 (+0.19 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1058-993-23 (+38.28 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Trey Murphy III OVER 16.5 Points (-115)
• Boston Celtics-Los Angeles Lakers ML Parlay (-135)
• Evan Mobley Double-Double (+110) – 0.5 unit
• Stephon Castle OVER 19.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit
• Charlotte Hornets +3 (-110) vs. Brooklyn Nets – 0.5 unit

Trey Murphy III OVER 16.5 Points (-115)

New Orleans wing Trey Murphy III missed the start of the 2024-25 season with an injury, but he returned to action in the past week, playing three games and averaging 14.3 points per game. 

Murphy has needed to shake off some rust – he’s shooting just 36.3 percent from the field and 27.3 percent from the field – but he’s a career 39.0 percent shooter from deep.

So, I think he’s undervalued at 16.5 points in this matchup with the Pelicans needing all the offense they can get from him and Brandon Ingram. 

Murphy cleared this prop in his last game, and he’s taken at least 12 shots and six 3-pointers in every game he’s played this season. His last time out, he went 7-for-15 from the field and 2-for-8 from downtown in a win over Denver. 

That was also the first time this season that Murphy had played over 30 minutes, a sign that his role could expand even more on Tuesday. 

Boston Celtics-Los Angeles Lakers ML Parlay (-135)

Boston Celtics

Boston is favored by five points against the 15-0 Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday, and I think Boston ends Cleveland’s fast start to the season.

The Cavs have ruled out Dean Wade and have listed Isaac Okoro and Caris LeVert as questionable, a sign that they may not have a ton of depth on Tuesday. Boston is just 4-2 at home this season, but the Cavs are going to lose at some points.

I’ll bet on it happening tonight. 

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are a perfect 6-0 at home this season, and they’re double-digit favorites against a Utah Jazz team that is 29th in the NBA in net rating in the 2024-25 campaign.

Los Angeles has not lost an NBA Cup game in two seasons, and I expect that trend to continue tonight. 

Evan Mobley Double-Double (+110) – 0.5 unit

This is a prime matchup for Evan Mobley, who averaged 19.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game in five playoff games against Boston last season.

The C’s still don’t have Kristaps Porzingis in action, and Mobley has five double-doubles on the season, scoring over 10 points in every single game. This prop comes down to his rebounding, but he may have to play more minutes with the Cavs listing four rotation players on the injury report tonight. 

Plus, Boston ranks just 16th in the NBA in opponent rebounds per game. Don’t be shocked if Mobley cracks double-digits on Tuesday. 

Stephon Castle OVER 19.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit

Rookie guard Stephon Castle should have an expanded role on Tuesday with Victor Wembanyama listed as doubtful and Jeremy Sochan listed as out against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Since moving into the starting lineup, Castle is averaging 13.7 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game – good for 20.3 PRA. 

He should get a few more shots with Wemby out, and he’s coming off six straight games where he’s scored at least 10 points. 

Charlotte Hornets +3 (-110) vs. Brooklyn Nets – 0.5 unit

Brooklyn has gotten off to a better start than many expected, but I don’t want to lay the points with the Nets with so many players out for this matchup, including big man Nic Claxton.

Brooklyn is 10-3-1 against the spread on the season, but the Hornets are 7-5 ATS as underdogs. On Saturday, Charlotte was a 3.5-point dog to the Milwaukee Bucks, and it ended up pulling off an upset win.

The Nets may have a great ATS record, but they’re not playing great basketball. They still rank 20th in the NBA in net rating and 26th in defensive rating this season. While Charlotte’s offense – outside of Ball – has struggled, Charles Lee has his squad playing better defense than last season – currently 20th in defensive rating. 

When two bad/rebuilding teams are playing, I don’t mind taking the points – especially when it’s a full possession – since we don’t really have expectations for either squad. 

Charlotte will cover in this NBA Cup clash.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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