Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Victor Wembanyama, Bucks-Celtics, Bam Adebayo)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Monday, Oct. 28.

San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama. / Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

A massive 11-game slate kicks off the week in the NBA on Monday, and there are a ton of prop bets that I’m eyeing tonight. 

Over the weekend, I hit three of four prop bets, pushing this season’s record to just around even, and I’m looking to make a run with a five-pick slate on Oct. 28. 

A few young big men – Victor Wembanyama and Dereck Lively II – have gotten off to strong starts this season, and they’re candidates in my prop plays. 

Plus, there are a ton of great matchups with the Boston Celtics hosting the Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns hosting the Los Angeles Lakers and the Cleveland Cavaliers taking on the New York Knicks.

There’s a way to attack one of those marquee matchups that is a perfect 3-0 on the season.

Let’s dive into Monday's NBA Best Bets! 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 11-10-1 (-0.37 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1021-955-23 (+37.71 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Victor Wembanyama OVER 24.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit
• Dereck Lively II OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-140) – 0.5 unit
• Boston Celtics 1H -5.5 (-110) vs. Milwaukee Bucks
• Bam Adebayo OVER 16.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit
• Michael Porter Jr. OVER 21.5 Points and Rebounds (-125) – 0.5 unit

Victor Wembanyama OVER 24.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit

For the second time in as many games, San Antonio Spurs big man Victor Wembanyama takes on the Houston Rockets.

On Saturday against Houston, Wemby had 29 points on 10-of-17 shooting (2-for-5 from 3). After scoring just 17 points on 5-of-18 shooting in the Spurs’ season-opening loss to the Dallas Mavericks, Wemby was much more efficient against a much lesser defender. 

Alperen Sengun of Houston couldn’t really handle Wemby, and the Rockets used Dillon Brooks on the big man a lot, allowing him to shoot over the top. It’s much different than facing Lively, Daniel Gafford, and Dallas in the first game of the year. 

We’ve seen Wemby approach 20 shots in each of his two games, taking an average of seven shots from the free-throw line as well per game. With Devin Vassell still out, this offense is going to run through the second-year center even more than usual. 

At just 24.5 points, he’s a solid bet to go OVER against Houston again. 

Dereck Lively II OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-140) – 0.5 unit

Second-year big man Dereck Lively II has picked up 11 rebounds in each of his first two games of the season for the Mavericks, and he has a favorable matchup on Monday against the Utah Jazz.

So far in 2024, the Jazz are allowing 50.5 opponent rebounds per game – the fourth most in the NBA. That bodes well for Lively, who has been in a timeshare with veteran Daniel Gafford at the center spot. However, it’s becoming more and more apparent that the former lottery pick is on track to become one of the more impactful big men in the game. 

Through two games, Lively is averaging 19.0 rebound chances per game. We only need him to grab nine to clear this prop on Monday. 

Boston Celtics 1H -5.5 (-110) vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Arguably my favorite bet of the night comes on the defending champion Boston Celtics, who are 10-point favorites at home against the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Bucks lost to the Chicago Bulls on Friday night, and they followed that up with a double-digit loss to the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday. At 1-2 with Khris Middleton banged up, the Bucks could be in trouble against Boston tonight.

This is the second game of a back-to-back for Doc Rivers’ squad, so it’s possible some veterans sit out, Boston has dominated in the first half this season going 3-0 against the spread. Not only that, but the C’s were the best first half team ATS by a wide margin last season as well. 

I love taking Boston early here – especially since it could build a big lead and go to the bench late in the game. 

Milwaukee beat a shorthanded Philly team in its opener, but it has done nothing since to prove that it could take down the defending champs – especially without a rest advantage. Boston comes into this game ranked No. 4 in the NBA in net rating while Milwaukee is just 18th. 

Bam Adebayo OVER 16.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

It’s been a rough start to the season for Bam Adebayo, but I’m going to buy low on the Miami Heat big man on Monday against the Detroit Pistons.

I employed a similar strategy for Tyrese Maxey on Sunday – taking his points total over – and he responded with 45 in an overtime win. 

While I don’t think Adebayo goes for 40, he’s due for some positive shooting regression after a 6-for-17 showing his last time out. The usage is there, which is a good sign for him to go OVER against Detroit. 

Over the last four seasons, Bam has averaged at least 18.7 points per game and he dominated the Pistons in the 2023-24 campaign. In four games, Adebayo had 22, 18, 20, and 22 points against Detroit, and he’s scored at least 15 points in every game against them dating back to November 2019, clearing 16.5 points in 10 of 12 meetings.

Detroit is 26th in defensive rating so far this season, making Bam a great bounce-back target tonight. 

Michael Porter Jr. OVER 21.5 Points and Rebounds (-125) – 0.5 unit

Denver Nuggets sharpshooter Michael Porter Jr. is another buy-low candidate after shooting just 9-for-30 from the field and 3-for-16 from 3-point range over his first two games of the season (both Denver losses).

MPJ is one of the better 3-point shooters in the NBA, and he has seen a ton of usage so far in the 2024-25 season, attempting at least 13 shots in each game while playing 70 total minutes.

Denver needs more scoring behind Nikola Jokic, and MPJ is in a favorable spot to provide that against a Toronto Raptors team that is banged up and ranks 24th in the league in defensive rating so far this season.

The key to this prop may be MPJ’s willingness to hit the glass this season, as he’s already cleared this number once thanks to a big rebounding day. The Nuggets forward has eight and nine boards in his two games in the 2024-25 campaign, so he may have some leeway in the scoring department to clear this prop. 

Against a Toronto team that has suffered a couple of bad losses already this season, MPJ and the Nuggets should be in a good spot to bounce back tonight.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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