Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Victor Wembanyama, Timberwolves vs. Thunder, More)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on New Year’s Eve, Tuesday, Dec. 31.

San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama is an elite prop target tonight. / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

As 2024 comes to a close, the NBA is treating us to a six-game slate, starting this afternoon, on New Year’s Eve. 

There are several interesting matchups, including the Milwaukee Bucks taking on the Indiana Pacers, the Minnesota Timberwolves facing the Oklahoma City Thunder, and the Cleveland Cavaliers looking for their 29th win of the season against the Los Angeles Lakers. 

I’m eyeing a few bets to close out the season, including a prop for San Antonio Spurs star Victor Wembanyama, who has been on an absolute tear this month. 

Here’s a full breakdown of each pick for Tuesday, Dec. 31. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 92-94-4 (-4.50 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1102-1039-26 (+33.59 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Minnesota Timberwolves-Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 217 (-112) – 0.5 unit
• Victor Wembanyama OVER 25.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit
• Bradley Beal UNDER 5.5 Rebounds (-160) – 0.5 unit
• Khris Middleton OVER 13.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

Minnesota Timberwolves-Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 217 (-112) – 0.5 unit

This is arguably the matchup of the night, but don’t expect a ton of points to be scored. 

The Thunder are the No. 1 defense in the NBA so far this season, and that’s led to them playing a bunch of low-scoring games, failing to clear 217 combined points in five of their last eight matchups.

On the season, OKC has hit the UNDER in 18 of its 32 games.

Now, the Thunder host a Minnesota team that is 9-7 to the UNDER on the road this season and profiles as a perfect team for this bet.

The Wolves – the No. 1 defense in the NBA last season – are No. 6 in the league in defensive rating in the 2024-25 campaign and just 21st in offensive rating. Not only that, but Minnesota doesn’t push the pace, ranking 25th in the NBA in that metric. 

Overall, these are two of the top four scoring defenses in the NBA. 

Victor Wembanyama OVER 25.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit

What more can we say about the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft? He’s on pace for an All-NBA nod this season, and this month has furthered that case. 

Wemby has been dominant in December, and luckily the entire world was able to witness that on Christmas Day against the New York Knicks when he dropped 42 points and 18 rebounds in a three-point loss.

This month, Wembanyama is averaging nearly 29 points per game, clearing 25.5 points in seven of his 11 games. He’s attempting 20.4 shots and 9.8 3s per game over that stretch, shooting an impressive 38.9 percent from beyond the arc and 48.2 percent from the field.

If he continues to get this usage, he should clear this prop against a Los Angeles Clippers team that he already dropped 24 points against – despite a 2-for-9 shooting game from 3 – earlier this season. 

Bradley Beal UNDER 5.5 Rebounds (-160) – 0.5 unit

We have to lay some juice on this prop, but Phoenix Suns guard Bradley Beal is averaging just 3.9 rebounds per game, clearing 5.5 boards in only four of his 21 matchups. 

Memphis ranks No. 2 in the NBA in rebounding percentage, so this isn’t exactly a favorable matchup for Beal. 

Overall, the star guard is averaging just 7.0 rebound chances per game this season, an extremely low ceiling for a player set at 5.5 boards. I’ll gladly fade him on Tuesday night. 

Khris Middleton OVER 13.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

After missing the start of the season due to bilateral ankle surgery in the offseason, Milwaukee Bucks wing Khris Middleton is starting to come around as a scorer. 

Over his first four games this season, Middleton was shooting just 25.9 percent from the field, averaging 7.0 points per game in limited minutes. 

However, he’s been a much different player over his last five games. 

The three-time All-Star has scored 14 or more points in each of those contests, including three games in a row with exactly 21 points. Over this five-game stretch, Middleton is averaging 19.0 points per game on 13.8 shots, shooting 53.6 percent from the field and 60.0 percent from 3.

This stretch has also coincided with Middleton playing more minutes (at least 23 in four straight) while starting each of the last four games. 

He should have a strong game against an Indiana team that is just 23rd in the NBA in defensive rating.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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