Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions for Diana Taurasi, Nneka Ogwumike, Sky-Liberty)

There are two veterans that could have huge games on Tuesday night.

Phoenix Mercury guard Diana Taurasi. / Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY

A huge three-game slate of WNBA Commissioner's Cup matchups take place on Tuesday night, and there are three bets that I’m looking to place on this action. 

I am leaving one game out of these picks – the Connecticut Sun-Washington Mystics matchup – as Connecticut is favored by 13 points, a number that’s a little too high for my liking (but you’re not going to catch me betting on 0-8 Washington any time soon). 

Instead, there’s a side I’m looking to in the Chicago Sky-New York Liberty matchup after Chicago pulled off a massive upset over New York earlier this season. 

Plus, there are two player props for some veteran stars in the Phoenix Mercury-Seattle Storm matchup that I am extremely high on. 

After a few days off of these picks, let’s get into the first edition of Peter’s Points (WNBA) on SI!

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 14-12 (+0.42 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

• Nneka Ogwumike OVER 18.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit
• Diana Taurasi OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-140) – 0.5 unit
• Chicago Sky +8 (-110) vs. New York Liberty – 0.5 unit

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Nneka Ogwumike OVER 18.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit

This is a dream matchup for Storm forward Nneka Ogwumike, as the Mercury won’t have Brittney Griner in this matchup.

Phoenix is allowing over 33.3 points in the paint per game this season, and this game should be played at a fast pace (Mercury are No. 3 in pace and Seattle is No. 2). 

The extra possessions should help Ogwumike, who has cleared 18.5 points in four of her six games while shooting 64.0 percent from the field. 

Without Griner’s rim protection, Ogwumike should be able to get some good looks at the rim, and the Storm have been on fire as of late, winning four games in a row. Ogwumike has attempted over 10 shots in five of six games, so the volume should be there for her to clear this number.

Diana Taurasi OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-140) – 0.5 unit

This is a volume play on Mercury star – and WNBA legend – Diana Taurasi. 

This season, Taurasi is shooting an impressive 40.8 percent from 3 while attempting 8.4 3-pointers per game (at least six in every matchup).

Taurasi has cleared 2.5 made 3-balls in five of her nine games, including two games where she’s hit seven shots from beyond the arc. 

The Storm are allowing 7.4 made 3s per game, so don’t be shocked if Taurasi stays hot from beyond the arc in this one. 

Chicago Sky +8 (-110) vs. New York Liberty – 0.5 unit

The Liberty have the best offensive rating and the third-best defensive rating in the WNBA, yet they have not been able to cover the spread at a high rate for bettors, going just 2-7 overall this season. 

Part of the reason for that is due to oddsmakers setting the Liberty as massive favorites night in and night out, but New York hasn’t gotten the dominant performances it’s used to from Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu, who are both shooting much worse than they did last season from 3. 

The addition of Kamilla Cardoso (back from a shoulder injury) gives Chicago yet another body down low, and the Sky have been a balanced team so far in 2024. They rank sixth in the league in net rating and are 4-3 against the spread, including a 2-1 ATS record at home. 

Chicago’s defense is No. 5 in the WNBA, and I think it can keep the Liberty in check in this one. Don’t forget, Chicago upset New York in New York earlier this season by nine points.

I’ll gladly take the points until the Liberty proves to us they can cover as a favorite.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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