Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Aces-Liberty, Fever-Dream and Sky-Wings)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down four bets to place for the five-game WNBA slate on Sunday, Sept. 8.

New York Liberty forward Jonquel Jones (35), guard Sabrina Ionescu (20) and forward Leonie Fiebich. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Sunday features a HUGE WNBA slate with the playoffs approaching, including three teams in action that are looking to get into the eighth and final playoff spot this season.

The Chicago Sky currently holds that spot, but they won’t have star rookie Angel Reese for the rest of the season due to an injury. Still, I have them as part of today’s WNBA Best Bets against the Dallas Wings.

Yesterday, we crushed a full unit play on the Seattle Storm, and I’m back with four bets – including a pair on the Indiana Fever – for Sunday’s action.

Sure, football is back, but there’s no reason not to dive into this crucial five-game WNBA slate as well!  

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 62-48 (+8.31 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

• Chicago Sky +4.5 (-115) vs. Dallas Wings – 0.5 unit
• Connecticut Sun-Los Angeles Sparks UNDER 161 (-112) 
• Indiana Fever -5 (-108) vs. Atlanta Dream
• Indiana Fever-New York Liberty Moneyline Parlay (+104) – 0.5 unit

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Chicago Sky +4.5 (-115) vs. Dallas Wings – 0.5 unit

So Reese is out, but Chennedy Carter is back for a Chicago team that is clinging to the final playoff spot in the WNBA.

Yet, the Sky find themselves as sizable underdogs at home against the Wings. Why?

The Wings have the worst defense in the WNBA, and they haven’t been able to make a run at a playoff spot, even with Satou Sabally back in action since the Olympic break. 

Losing Reese is still massive, but it does open up more chances for Kamilla Cardoso (another first-round pick) to build on what has been a solid second half of the season. Since the Olympic break, Cardoso is averaging 12.7 points and 8.2 rebounds per game while shooting 64.1 percent from the field.

She’s been much more efficient than Reese this season, and that could help the Chicago offense.

Not only that, but Dallas is just 1-7 against the spread as a favorite and 6-11 against the spread on the season. 

I can’t lay points with a nine-win team that doesn’t defend on the road.

Connecticut Sun-Los Angeles Sparks UNDER 161 (-112) 

This may be my favorite bet of the night, because so many things line up well for the UNDER.

In the first two meetings between these teams, they combined for 149 and 130 points, yet the total in this matchup is all the way up at 161!

The Sun have the No. 1 defensive rating in the WNBA, holding Las Vegas to less than 80 points in Friday’s loss. The Sparks, on the other hand, are No. 11 in the league in offensive rating, setting this game up perfectly for a low-scoring affair.

Not only that, but the Sun love to slow the game down, ranking dead last in the W in pace. 

Plus, both of these teams have hit the UNDER in at least 50 percent of their games this season. This is an easy play on Sunday night. 

Indiana Fever -5 (-108) vs. Atlanta Dream

I love Indiana as a home favorite against an Atlanta team that is just 5-12 straight up on the road and has lost five of its last seven games. The Dream did pick up a huge win over Dallas on Friday, but they needed overtime to do so. 

The Fever are a much better team, ranking No. 1 in offensive rating and No. 3 in net rating over their last 10 games. 

Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell have formed an elite scoring duo at the guard spots, the Fever are now 10-6 straight up and against the spread at home this season.

I’ll gladly lay the points for Indiana to bounce-back from Friday’s loss to Minnesota. 

Indiana Fever-New York Liberty Moneyline Parlay (+104) – 0.5 unit

I already explained that I like the Fever to cover the spread, but I want to pair them with the New York Liberty on Sunday.

New York is just 5-13 against the spread at home this season, but it is 2-0 against the Las Vegas Aces, winning by eight and 12 points on the road.

Rather than lay the five points with the Liberty tonight, I’ll parlay them with the Fever, who I am confident are going to win.

New York has the No. 1 net rating in the WNBA this season and over the last 10 games, and it has shown on the road that it can hold on against this Las Vegas squad. Even though the Aces are the defending champs, they have taken a step back defensively in 2024.

Not only that, but they haven’t come close to covering against the Liberty in 2024. Sure, the Aces haven’t gotten points in a single game this season, but they’re also just 14-20 ATS overall and 6-10 ATS on the road. 

These are the two best offenses in the WNBA, but the Liberty (No. 2 in defensive rating) have been nearly six points per 100 possessions better than the Aces on the other end of the floor. That should be the difference on Sunday. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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