Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Breanna Stewart, Liberty-Lynx Game 3)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for Game 3 of the WNBA Finals between the Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty.

New York Liberty forward Breanna Stewart (30) celebrates. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

The WNBA Finals have turned into a best-of-three after the New York Liberty evened the series with the Minnesota Lynx on Sunday. 

Now, the Liberty find themselves as small favorites on the road in Game 3, a sign that oddsmakers expect them to come through as favorites in this series. 

Minnesota has done a solid job against the Liberty this season (4-2 overall), but it lost by 14 in Game 2 after New York shot the lights out from 3 (11-for-24). 

Can the Lynx protect home court on Wednesday night?

Here’s a breakdown of my two best bets for this matchup. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 81-73 (+3.69 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

• Breanna Stewart OVER 22.5 Points (+100) – 0.5 unit
• New York Liberty ML (-148) vs. Minnesota Lynx – 0.5 unit

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Breanna Stewart OVER 22.5 Points (+100) – 0.5 unit

The Breanna Stewart breakout is coming.

The Liberty star has attempted at least 15 shots in every game this postseason, but she is averaging just 19.9 points per game while shooting 40.6 percent from the field and 30.3 percent from 3. 

Stewie is usually a more efficient scorer than that (she shot 45.8 percent from the field in the regular season), and I’m buying her usage so far in the Finals.

Through two games, Stewart has taken 21 and 18 shots, and she also attempted 21 shots in the series-clinching win over the Las Vegas Aces in the semis. 

New York is going to feed the two-time WNBA Finals MVP, and even though she’s only cleared 22.5 points in one game this postseason, she’s due to get back on track in this series. 

New York Liberty ML (-148) vs. Minnesota Lynx – 0.5 unit

It’s interesting to see the Liberty as favorites on the road, especially since they lost by 17 in Minnesota during the regular season. In the 2024 season (playoffs and Commissioner’s Cup included), the Lynx are 4-2 straight up against the Liberty despite playing just one of those matchups at Target Center. 

Minnesota has dominated as an underdog, going 13-5 against the spread, and it’s 1-1 against the spread with one outright win in this series. 

New York’s offense looked a lot better in Game 2, with four players scoring in double figures. Overall, the Liberty shot 11-for-24 from beyond the arc, making it nearly impossible for the Lynx to keep up on a poor shooting night.

However, Minnesota is the No. 1 3-point shooting team in the league, so I don’t expect a massive discrepancy in this department going forward. 

That being said, the Liberty have dominated on the road this season, going 16-6 against the spread and 17-5 straight up (including playoffs) this season. 

I don’t want to underestimate the Lynx as underdogs, but it took an all-time bad shooting performance from Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu (14-for-47 combined) in Game 1 for Minnesota to win. 

With this spread sitting at just 2.5 points, I’ll bet on New York to come away with a win.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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