Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Breanna Stewart, Lynx-Liberty Game 5)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for Game 5 of the WNBA Finals between the Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty.

New York Liberty forward Breanna Stewart. / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

A WNBA champion will be crowned on Sunday night, as the New York Liberty face the Minnesota Lynx in a winner-take-all Game 5 at Barclays Center.

Minnesota picked up a two-point win in Game 4, with Bridget Carleton knocking down a pair of free throws in the final seconds to secure the victory and force a Game 5.

This has been an unreal series, with three games being decided by one possession, including Sabrina Ionescu’s game-winning 3-pointer in Game 3. Not only that, but these teams split the first four games with one home win and one road win each.

It doesn’t get much more even than that. 

So, how should we bet on Sunday’s Game 5?

In the final day of the WNBA season, I have a side and a player prop to bet. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 83-73 (+4.53 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

• Minnesota Lynx +6 (-115) vs. New York Liberty – 0.5 unit
• Breanna Stewart OVER 20.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Minnesota Lynx +6 (-115) vs. New York Liberty – 0.5 unit

As I mentioned, three of the four games in this series have been decided by one score, so it’s hard to lay six points with the Liberty – even at home.

Minnesota covered in Game 1 – winning outright – in New York, and the Liberty have struggled mightily at home this season, going 8-18-1 against the spread.

Even though the Liberty have the No. 1 offense in the WNBA, they haven’t had a game where all three of their stars – Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Ionescu – are truly clicking.

Since Minnesota is No. 2 in the WNBA in defensive rating and No. 1 in 3-point percentage, I expect it to hang around in this matchup. The Lynx as a franchise are 5-2 when facing elimination in the WNBA Finals – an insane mark that they added to in Game 4. 

I expect this to be a close game on Sunday. 

Breanna Stewart OVER 20.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

Breanna Stewart went off in both of the wins for the Liberty (21 points in Game 2, 30 points in Game 3), but she shot just 11-for-42 from the field in the two losses for New York.

On the bright side for Stewart's prop bettors, she’s attempted at least 18 shots in all four games in this series, and I expect her to once again be heavily involved in Game 5. 

Stewart is simply too good of a player to expect her to go 5-for-21 again on Sunday. As long as the usage is there, she should be able to clear 20.5 points in this matchup.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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