Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Chelsea Gray, Dream-Liberty, Storm-Aces)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the two Game 2 matchups in the WNBA Playoffs on Tuesday.

Las Vegas Aces guard Chelsea Gray. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The two WNBA Finals favorites are back in action in the WNBA Playoffs on Tuesday night.

The New York Liberty – fresh off of a 14-point win over the Atlanta Dream in Game 1 – are looking to advance to the semifinals on Tuesday night after going an insane 32-8 during the regular season.

If they advance, they’ll play the winner of the Seattle Storm-Las Vegas Aces matchup, and those teams are also playing their Game 2 on Tuesday.

Las Vegas – the back-to-back defending champion – is the No. 2 choice in the latest odds to win the Finals, and it won by 11 (covering the spread) against the Storm in Game 1 of this series. 

With both Las Vegas and New York heavily favored to advance to a semifinal matchup for the ages, how should we bet on Tuesday’s Game 2s?

I have three plays – including a player prop for Aces guard Chelsea Gray – for Tuesday night.

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 73-58 (+8.60 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Chelsea Gray 6+ Assists (-105) – 0.5 unit
• Las Vegas Aces -9 (-110) vs. Seattle Storm – 0.5 unit
• Atlanta Dream-New York Liberty UNDER 156.5 (-112) – 0.5 unit

Chelsea Gray 6+ Assists (-105) – 0.5 unit

Gray was terrific in Game 1 for the Aces, dishing out seven assists and scoring 16 points on 5-of-10 shooting from the field.

One of the best guards in the WNBA and the 2022 WNBA FinalsMVP, Gray had a tough task this regular season after she returned from injury. The star guard averaged just 8.6 points and 4.9 assists per game, but she did play very well against Seattle.

In three regular season games against the Storm, Gray tallied seven (in 15:30 of playing time), six and five assists. She then followed that up with a seven-assist game (in 32:29) in Game 1. 

The Aces offense runs through Gray’s playmaking and A’ja Wilson’s insane scoring ability. At this price, I think the six-time All-Star is worth a bet in Game 2. 

Las Vegas Aces -9 (-110) vs. Seattle Storm – 0.5 unit

After winning Game 1, the Aces are now over .500 against the spread at home (11-10) this season, and they didn’t even play their best game on Sunday to easily take down the Storm.

Kelsey Plum (1-for-8) had just two points, and Wilson wasn’t great from the field (9-for-21) in Game 1. 

Veteran Tiffany Hayes did have 20 points off the bench, but that’s what makes this Las Vegas team so special – it’s loaded with veterans and championship experience. 

With Storm center Ezi Magbegor’s status (concussion) once again in question, I’m worried about Seattle keeping this game close. 

The Storm did not close the season strong – ranking seventh in net rating after the Olympic break – and they have been one of the worst shooting teams (ninth in effective field goal percentage) all season long.

To knock off this Aces team, you have to be able to score at a high level, and Seattle’s 67 points in Game 1 simply isn’t going to get the job done on any night.

With the Storm falling to 9-12 ATS on the road after Game 1, I’ll fade them in Game 2 and take the Aces to advance to the second round. 

Atlanta Dream-New York Liberty UNDER 156.5 (-112) – 0.5 unit

Shockingly enough, the Liberty covered the spread at home in Game 1 – just the sixth time they’ve done that all season. 

While I expect the No. 1 seed to finish off this three-game series on Tuesday as a 12.5-point favorite, the UNDER is the more intriguing play to me.

This season (including playoffs and the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup), New York has hit the UNDER in 23 of its 42 games, and the Dream have been an even better under team, hitting it in 24 of their 41 contests.

In the four regular season meetings between these teams, they combined for 139, 171, 156 and 145 points, going under tonight’s total in three of the four matchups. 

Game 1 of this series finished with 152 combined points, and there was an interesting trend across the league when it came to totals in Game 1s on Sunday. 

Three road teams failed to crack 70 points, and only one game had more than 162 combined points (Minnesota vs. Phoenix). 

When it comes to the Liberty and Dream, these teams both play at a pretty slow pace (Atlanta is 11th, New York is seventh) this season, and the Dream have not been a good shooting team, ranking dead last in the league in effective field goal percentage. 

On top of that, these teams are both in the top half of the league in defensive rating (New York is third, Atlanta is sixth). 

I expect another low-scoring affair in Brooklyn on Tuesday night.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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