Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Liberty, Fever and Mercury on Wednesday)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets in the WNBA for the five-game slate on Wednesday.

New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu (20) celebrates. / Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The WNBA is treating us to a massive five-game slate on Wednesday, including three games that will tip off by noon on the East Coast.

So, why not bet on the winner of three of them?

That’s my plan in today’s WNBA best bets as we look to bounce back from Tuesday’s unfortunate beats in the prop market (losing by the hook on our Dearica Hamby prop). 

Today’s focus turns to Caitlin Clark, Breanna Stewart, and Brittney Griner to lead their teams to some wins. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 39-30 (+5.28 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• New York Liberty Moneyline (-135) vs. Connecticut Sun – 0.5 unit
• Indiana Fever-Phoenix Mercury Moneyline Parlay (-139) – 0.5 unit

New York Liberty Moneyline (-135) vs. Connecticut Sun – 0.5 unit

The Liberty officially have the best net rating (11.5) in the league this season, but they are coming off of a loss to the Indiana Fever where they blew a fourth quarter lead. 

I don’t expect that to carry over into such a big matchup against the Sun, who have won three games in a row to pull into a tie in the standings with New York. 

Connecticut is 9-2 straight up at home – one of the losses came to this Liberty squad – but it has struggled against the spread, going 4-7. Not only that, but the Sun are just 1-3 against the spread as underdogs, and I am concerned about their offense keeping up with the high-powered attack of New York. 

The last time these teams played, the Liberty were without starting guard Courtney Vandersloot, but she is back and adds a huge playmaking element to this offense. 

The Liberty are much better against the spread on the road (6-4) than at home (2-10) in 2024, but I’m not even going to ask them to cover in this game. 

I think New York simply wins outright, as it showed in the first meeting it has too many weapons between Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones, and Breanna Stewart for Connecticut to keep up with. Even though the Sun are elite on defense, I think the Liberty find a way to pull out the road win. 

Indiana Fever-Phoenix Mercury Moneyline Parlay (-139) – 0.5 unit

Indiana Fever Moneyline vs. Washington Mystics

Indiana is a seven-point favorite in this game against a Washington team that is an impressive 14-7-1 against the spread this season.

So, I’m just going to take the Fever to win given their dominance at home in 2024. 

Indiana is 5-4 straight up and 6-3 against the spread at Gainbridge Fieldhouse this season, winning five consecutive games there. 

After a slow start to the 2024 season, Indiana has played much better as of late, ranking eighth in net rating and fifth in offensive rating over its last 10 games. A lot of that has coincided with Caitlin Clark playing better, as she’s averaging 17.0 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 9.8 assists per game over her last eight contests. 

With the Mystics down multiple key players for this matchup (Brittney Sykes and Shakira Austin), I have a hard time backing them to cover on the road. 

Washington’s defense has kept it in games this season, but the Fever have improved on offense which is an issue for the Mystics (11th in offensive rating). 

Indiana has two wins over Washington already this season, and I expect another on Wednesday afternoon. 

Phoenix Mercury Moneyline vs. Dallas Wings

To close out this parlay, I’m backing another home team the Phoenix Mercury to pick up a much-needed win. 

Phoenix is facing the Dallas Wings (5-17 this season), who are just 2-11 on the road and are down Satou Sabally, Maddy Siegrist, and Jaelyn Brown in this matchup. 

The Wings have struggled all season long due to injuries, and Phoenix has been money at home (7-4 straight up) in 2024. 

This is a game that a playoff team like the Mercury has to win, especially since the Wings rank dead last in the W in net rating and defensive rating. 

Let’s parlay these two home teams to grab wins on Wednesday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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