Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Mercury vs. Sky, Mystics vs. Lynx)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets in the WNBA for the return to action after the Olympic break.

WNBA Commissioner Cathy Englebert gives the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Championship MVP award to Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier. / Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

THE WNBA IS BACK!

After a lengthy layoff due to the Olympics, where several WNBA stars helped Team USA take home the gold medal, the WNBA season resumes for the home stretch ahead of the playoffs with three games on Thursday night. 

The Commissioner’s Cup champion Minnesota Lynx are in action against the Washington Mystics, and they’ll get star Napheesa Collier back in the lineup after she missed a few games ahead of the break. 

Rookie of the Year candidate Angel Reese is also making her return to hardwood, as the Chicago Sky are home underdogs against gold medalists Diana Tauarais, Kahleah Copper and Brittney Griner and the Phoenix Mercury.

Those are the two matchups that I’m focusing on in our return to the WNBA betting, but the New York Liberty and Los Angeles Sparks are also in action to close out the night. 

The dash to the WNBA playoffs starts now, so how should we play these matchups? 

Favorites are the flavor of the day…

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 42-35 (+3.51 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Minnesota Lynx -8.5 (-110) vs. Washington Mystics
• Phoenix Mercury Moneyline (-155) vs. Chicago Sky

Minnesota Lynx -8.5 (-110) vs. Washington Mystics

Shakira Austin is expected to return to action for the Mystics after playing in just six of their first 25 games, and that’s moved the spread in this game from Lynx -10 to -8.5.

Still, I’m buying Minnesota with Collier back in action. This game will be the first of two straight between the Lynx and Mystics, and Minnesota already has a win over Washington earlier this season.

The Lynx took that game by seven points at home, but Collier (foot) was not in the lineup. 

So, with the MVP candidate back in action, I expect the Lynx to roll at Target Center.

Minnesota ranks No. 1 in the league in defensive rating and No. 4 in net rating while the Mystics are just ninth in offensive rating, so we could see a low-scoring game on the Washington side. Maybe Austin helps improve this offense, but even when she’s played she’s only been on the floor for about half the game (21.5 minutes per game). 

Washington is 15-8-1 against the spread as an underdog this season, but the Lynx are still an impressive 15-11 ATS overall in 2024. 

With the Lynx at full strength for the first time in weeks, I’ll back them to get the win at home at a more favorable number than expected. 

Phoenix Mercury Moneyline (-155) vs. Chicago Sky

Even though the Sky are at home, that shouldn’t be a sign for bettors to wager on them and Reese.

So far this season, the Sky are just 4-8 straight up and 4-8 against the spread at home, and they’ve struggled mightily as underdogs as well, going 5-11 ATS. 

That mark simply isn’t going to get it done when facing another playoff-caliber team, especially since the opposite can be said for the Mercury. 

While they’ve only won five games on the road, they’ve gone 7-6 against the spread in those games and they’re elite when favored in 2024, going 7-3 against the spread. 

This is an interesting matchup, as the Sky no longer have Marina Mabrey – one of their best players – after they traded her to the Connecticut Sun ahead of the All-Star break. 

I’m intrigued to see how this offense operates without her, and I think Phoenix matches up well with Reese down low since Griner is one of the best interior presences in the W. 

Instead of laying the points, let’s just try to get a win on the board – both in the bets and on the court – and take Phoenix to come out on top.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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