Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Napheesa Collier, Sun-Lynx Game 5)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for Game 5 of the WNBA Semifinals between the Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut Sun on Tuesday.

Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier. / Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

Is there anything better than a winner-take-all playoff game? 

That’s what we have on Tuesday night in the WNBA Semifinals, as a trip to the Finals against the New York Liberty is on the line between the Connecticut Sun and Minnesota Lynx. 

Connecticut extended this series on Sunday, riding 20 points from guard Tyasha Harris to a comeback win in the second half. Harris, who has been dealing with an ankle injury, made her first start of the series after playing sparingly at points in this postseason.

Could that be the move that pushes Connecticut over the edge? 

Things will be tough on the road against a Minnesota team that has lost just five total games at home in the 2024 season, and oddsmakers have favored the Lynx by 3.5 points on Tuesday.

I’m making two bets in this game – one in the prop market and one on a side. Let’s start with the prop for Game 5!

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 79-69 (+4.83 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Napheesa Collier OVER 33.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit
• Connecticut Sun +3.5 (-105) vs. Minnesota Lynx – 0.5 unit

Napheesa Collier OVER 33.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit

After a few down scoring games to open the series – thanks to some impressive Connecticut defense – All-WNBA forward Napheesa Collier has found her groove again. 

She dominated Game 3, scoring 26 points on 11-of-19 shooting to go with 11 rebounds and three assists, and then she followed that up with a 29-point, 13-rebound, 3-assist showing in Game 4. 

While the Lynx lost Game 4, it’s clear that they’re going to feed Collier early and often, and she’s done a great job passing the ball in this series, picking up three or more assists in every game.

Bettors could consider Colliers points prop (21.5) or rebounds prop (9.5) as bets as well, but I’m leaning on another 20-plus point game carrying us to an OVER on her PRA prop on Tuesday. 

Connecticut Sun +3.5 (-105) vs. Minnesota Lynx – 0.5 unit

There aren’t many betting trends that support the Sun in this game. 

They’re just 3-7 against the spread as an underdog this season and the Lynx are elite at home (16-4 straight up in the regular season, 13-11 against the spread overall). 

So, why bet on them?

Well, Sun head coach Stephanie White’s adjustment to go back to Ty Harris and bring Marina Mabrey off the bench gave the Sun some much-needed depth on Sunday, and it gave Mabrey some more legs after she struggled mightily shooting the ball in Game 3. 

Minnesota, on the other hand, didn’t get much from anyone not named Napheesa Collier (29 points) or Natisha Heidman (16 points) in Game 4. 

The 3-ball has been the great equalizer for the Lynx all season long (they shot a league-best 38.0 percent in the regular season), but the Sun answered the bell in Game 4, shooting over 53 percent from downtown. 

With the two best defensive teams in the WNBA facing off in a must-win matchup, I expect this game to slow down in the fourth quarter with some intense half-court possessions. 

Even though the Lynx may end up winning this one, I can’t help but take the points with the Sun sitting as 3.5-point underdogs. I do think this game remains within a possession after four straight games of back-and-forth second halves.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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