Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Sabrina Ionescu, Alyssa Thomas, Napheesa Collier)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the two Game 3 matchups in the WNBA semifinals on Friday.

New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

After two days off, the WNBA Playoffs return on Friday night for a pair of massive Game 3 matchups. 

In the No. 1 vs. No 4 matchup, the New York Liberty (No. 1) have taken a commanding 2-0 series lead on the Las Vegas Aces — moving them to 5-0 against the Aces overall this season. 

No team in WNBA history (0-18) has ever won a series after being down 2-0 in a best-of-five. Can the back-to-back defending champs make history? 

They’re facing an uphill battle, but oddsmakers have them favored in Game 3.

On the other side of the bracket, the No. 2-seeded Minnesota Lynx avoided a 0-2 hole in their series with the No. 3 Connecticut Sun, winning 77-70 at home in Game 2.

Now, the series shifts to Mohegan Sun Arena where the Sun will look to win two straight to avoid a trip back to Minnesota for a deciding Game 5. 

There are a ton of ways to bet on these matchups, but I haven’t felt great about betting on sides this postseason.

So…. TONIGHT IS A PROP NIGHT!

Three players, three props to consider for the WNBA Semifinal action on Friday. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 79-64 (+7.33 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

• Alyssa Thomas OVER 32.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-112) – 0.5 unit
• Napheesa Collier OVER 3.5 Assists (+106) – 0.5 unit
• Sabrina Ionescu OVER 29.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-114) – 0.5 unit

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Alyssa Thomas OVER 32.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-112) – 0.5 unit

Sun star Alyssa Thomas has found a new gear this postseason.

She’s averaging 16.5 points, 8.8 rebounds and 10.5 assists per game while shooting 51.7 percent from the field in the playoffs. Thomas has cleared 32.5 points, rebounds and assists in all four of her games, totaling 35, 37, 36 and 35 PRA. 

This line should be closer to 34.5 or 35.5, so I’ll gladly take the five-time All-Star at 32.5 in Game 3. 

Thomas has played at least 37 minutes in each game in this series, and we all know the star – nicknamed The Engine – is the driving force behind this Connecticut attack, even when she’s not scoring at a high rate. 

Napheesa Collier OVER 3.5 Assists (+106) – 0.5 unit

The Sun – the No. 1 defense in the WNBA – have sold out to stop Napheesa Collier after she averaged 40 points per game in the first round.

Collier has scored 19 points (7-for-16 shooting) and nine points (3-for-14 shooting) through the first two games of this series, but she has been solid in another area – her passing.

The Sun are trying to make things tough on Collier, but she’s a gifted passer (averaged 3.4 assists per game in the regular season) and has used that part of her game more this postseason.

Collier has at least four dimes in all four of her playoff games, averaging 4.5 assists per game in this series.

The Sun may want to keep making things tough on the All-Star scoring the ball, but I love getting her at plus money to hit four assists again on Friday night. 

Sabrina Ionescu OVER 29.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-114) – 0.5 unit

What a postseason it has been for New York guard Sabrina Ionescu.

Through four games, she’s averaging 24.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 1.8 steals per game while shooting 52.2 percent from the field and 42.4 percent from beyond the arc. 

It’s hard to be much better than Ionescu has, and she’s cleared 29.5 points, rebounds and assists in three of her four postseason appearances in 2024. 

Whenever Ionescu gets hot shooting the ball, she’s a threat to go for 20-plus, and I’m hoping we can still catch her on that hot streak tonight.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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