Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Satou Sabally, Liberty-Wings)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the standalone matchup between the New York Liberty and Dallas Wings on Thursay.

Dallas Wings forward Satou Sabally. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Thursday night features a standalone game in the WNBA between the New York Liberty and the Dallas Wings, and there are two bets I am eyeing for this matchup. 

New York came through and covered for us on Tuesday night, but can we trust it again as an 11.5-point favorite on the road?

I have a pick for a side and a player prop for what should be a lopsided matchup in Dallas. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 67-52 (+7.57 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

• New York Liberty -11.5 (-110) vs. Dallas Wings – 0.5 unit
• Satou Sabally OVER 16.5 Points (-122) – 0.5 unit

New York Liberty -11.5 (-110) vs. Dallas Wings – 0.5 unit

I’m going to do the same thing I did on Tuesday and lay the points with the Liberty. 

New York moved to 13-5 against the spread on the road with Tuesday night’s win, while Dallas dropped to 5-13 against the spread on the road.

All season long, the Dallas defense has been a massive issue. The Wings have a 111.1 defensive rating, far and away the worst in the WNBA. The No. 11 ranked team – the Indiana Fever – has a defensive rating of just 107.1. 

To compare to New York (third in defensive rating), the Wings are allowing nearly 16 more points per 100 possessions this season.

So, surely Dallas is at least scoring at a high level, right? 

Yes and no. The Wings rank fifth in defense rating, but they’re not terribly efficient, ranking seventh in effective field goal percentage and eighth in true shooting percentage.

With the Liberty still looking to officially clinch the No. 1 seed, I’m going to trust them to handle business on the road. If they do, there’s a chance New York can sit some players – or play them fewer minutes – over the final few games of the regular season. 

Satou Sabally OVER 16.5 Points (-122) – 0.5 unit

I’m buying low on Satou Sabally, who has struggled in back-to-back matchups and scored just nine points on Tuesday against the Liberty.

Sabally’s usage hasn’t really changed – she took 15 shots in a 12-point game on Sept. 8 and 10 shots on Tuesday – but she just hasn’t been as efficient as she was right out of the Olympic break.

On the season, the All-Star forward is averaging 17.7 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game while shooting 42.9 percent from the field and 45.2 percent from 3-point range.

While she may be due for some 3-point shooting regression, Sabally has still scored 17 or more points in seven of her 11 games in 2024. 

Not only that, but the Wings play at the fastest pace in the WNBA, leading to a ton of possessions and chances to score. Sabally will get back on track on Thursday.

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