Phillies vs. Braves Prediction, Odds and Probable Pitchers for Wednesday, Aug. 21 (Fade Max Fried)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Philadelphia Phillies-Atlanta Braves matchup on Wednesday.

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Max Fried. / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves pulled off a major upset on Tuesday night, beating Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler.

Atlanta is down some key players in Austin Riley and Ronald Acuna Jr., but it is still firmly in the mix for a playoff spot in the 2024 season. Can it keep the positive momentum going on Wednesday?

Lefty Max Fried is on the mound – and looking to turn around a bad August – for the Braves in this matchup.

Oddsmakers have set this game as a pick’em, but is there a side we should lean with to bet?

Let’s break down the odds, probable pitchers and my best bet for Wednesday's NL East showdown. 

Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line 

• Phillies -1.5 (+150)
• Braves +1.5 (-180)

Moneyline

• Phillies: -110
• Braves: -110

Total

• 7.5 (Over -118/Under -102)

Phillies vs. Braves Probable Pitchers

• Phillies: Aaron Nola (11-6, 3.45 ERA)
• Braves: Max Fried (7-7, 3.62 ERA)

Phillies vs. Braves How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Aug. 21
• Time: 7:20 p.m. EST
• Venue: Truist Park
• How to Watch (TV): NBC Sports Philadelphia, Bally Sports South
• Phillies record: 73-52
• Braves record: 67-58

Phillies vs. Braves Key Players to Watch

Philadelphia Phillies

Bryce Harper: Even though it’s a lefty-lefty matchup, Bryce Harper has fared well against Max Fried in his career, picking up eight hits in 29 at bats, including two home runs. Can Harper have a big game tonight to lead the Phils to a win? 

Atlanta Braves

Max Fried: If the Braves are going to make the playoffs – or any kind of playoff run – Max Fried needs to get back to his ace status. The lefty has a 3.62 ERA on the season, but he’s been awful in August, allowing 13 runs (12 earned) across 13.2 innings of work (three starts). 

Phillies vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Oddsmakers have set this matchup as a pick’em, but I think that’s undervaluing Aaron Nola – and overvaluing Max Fried – in this matchup. 

Here’s a breakdown of this game from today’s Rounding the Bases – SI Betting’s straight up picks for every MLB game:

The Philadelphia Phillies have a chance to build their lead in the NL East tonight, and I think they get it done against the Atlanta Braves, who have lost Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley to major injuries.

There isn't nearly as much juice in the Braves' lineup as we expected there would be at this point in the season, and lefty Max Fried (tonight's starter) has struggled in August, allowing 13 runs (12 earned) in three starts (13.2 innings of work).

That's not going to cut it against the No. 1 offense in MLB against left-handed pitching, especially with Aaron Nola on the bump for the Phils. Nola has led Philly to a 16-9 record in his starts in 2024, allowing three or fewer earned runs in 20 of them.

Pick: Phillies (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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