Phillies vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers for NLDS Game 3 (How to Bet Total)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for Game 3 of the NLDS between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Nick Castellanos. / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The Philadelphia Phillies evened their series with the New York Mets in Game 2 of the NLDS on Sunday, getting a walk-off hit from Nick Castellanos to win 7-6.

Now, the Phillies find themselves in a pick’em scenario on the road for Game 3 against a New York team that just refuses to go away this season.

Aaron Nola gets the ball for the first time this postseason for the Phils against New York’s Sean Manaea, who was the starter in the team’s Wild Card loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, key players to watch and my best bet for Game 3 of the NLDS.  

Phillies vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Phillies -1.5 (+154)
• Mets +1.5 (-185)

Moneyline

• Phillies: -115
• Mets: -105

Total

• 7.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Phillies vs. Mets Probable Pitchers

• Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (14-8, 3.57 ERA)
• New York: Sean Manaea (12-6, 3.47 ERA)

Phillies vs. Mets How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Oct. 8
• Time: 5:08 p.m. EST
• Venue: Citi Field
• How to Watch (TV): FS1
• Series: Tied 1-1

Phillies vs. Mets Key Players to Watch

Philadelphia Phillies

Nick Castellanos: The hero in Game 2, Castellanos had three hits, a homer, two runs scored, two RBIs and of course – the game winning hit – to even the series for the Phils. He’s 5-for-15 with three homers against Manaea in his MLB career. 

New York Mets

Sean Manaea: The Mets lefty allowed two runs across five innings of work in the NL Wild Card against the Milwaukee Brewers, and he was great in the regular season, leading the Mets to a 23-9 record in his starts. On Sept. 21, Manaea allowed just three hits and three runs across seven innings of work in a win over the Phillies. 

Phillies vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

It’s been a tale of two Aaron Nola’s against the Mets this season.

In his first start, he threw a complete game shutout, allowing just four hits and striking out eight. Then, on Sept. 13, he gave up six hits and six runs in 4.1 innings of work. 

Meanwhile, Manaea has a 5.40 ERA in three starts against the Phillies this season, posting two strong outings with a blowup performance back on June 8 sandwiched in between.

The Mets have come from behind time and time again in the regular season and playoffs, but they couldn’t get over the hump in Game 2?

Does this play style come back to haunt them?

I have a hard time fading either of these teams since the Phillies are 21-12 in Nola’s starts and the Mets are 23-10 in Manaea’s starts. 

Instead, I’m going to take the OVER after there were eight runs in Game 1 and 13 in Game 2 of this series. At even money, I think it’s worth taking a shot on eight runs being scored again on Tuesday

Pick: OVER 7.5 (+100)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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