Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds and Probable Pitchers for Sunday, July 28

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Pittsburgh Pirates-Arizona Diamondbacks matchup on Sunday.

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller. / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The NL wild card race is heating up, and Sunday’s matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Arizona Diamondbacks potentially having some long-term implications.

Right now, the Pirates are three games out of the final wild card spot and 2.5 games back of the D-Backs, who are looking to make the playoffs again after winning the NL in 2023. 

Arizona is looking to complete the sweep in this series – and extend its winning streak to five games – on Sunday, but it’ll have to face Mitch Keller, one of the better pitchers in the National League this season. 

Here’s a look at the odds, probable pitchers and my best bet on Sunday. 

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Pirates -1.5 (+150)
• Diamondbacks +1.5 (-180)

Moneyline

• Pirates: -108
• Diamondbacks: -112

Total

• 8.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers

• Pittsburgh: Mitch Keller (10-5, 3.34 ERA)
• Arizona: Yilber Diaz (1-1, 5.40 ERA)

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, July 28
• Time: 4:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Chase Field
• How to Watch (TV): AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh, MLB Extra Innings
• Pirates record: 52-52
• D-Backs record: 55-50

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Key Players to Watch

Pittsburgh Pirates

Mitch Keller: An All-Star last season, Keller has been really solid in 2024, posting a 3.34 ERA in 20 starts while leading the Pirates to a 14-6 record when he’s on the mound. Since June 1, the Pirates are 7-2 in Keller’s nine starts with the righty posting a 3.02 ERA. 

Arizona Diamondbacks

Ketel Marte: One of the best hitters in baseball this season, Marte earned an All-Star selection this season and is hitting .296 with 23 homers and 68 runs batted in. Marte has been extra hot as of late, hitting a homer in four of his last five games. 

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Arizona has gotten off to a great start in this series, but I think Sunday’s game is all about the starting pitchers. 

Keller has led the Pirates to an extremely impressive record in 2024, and he has the advantage over Yilber Diaz, who is making just his third appearance of his MLB career. 

Diaz had back-to-back solid outings to open his career, but he was rocked – allowing seven runs in three innings – in his last outing. 

Now, I’m not saying Diaz will get shelled again, but there’s no doubt that Keller is the more trustworthy pitcher here. 

The Pirates have also done a solid job on the road, going .500 so far in 2024. The Bucs will avoid a sweep on Sunday.

Pick: Pirates Moneyline (-108)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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