Pistons vs. Heat Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Monday, Oct. 28 (Bet on Bam)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Miami Heat-Detroit Pistons matchup on Monday night.

Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo. / Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

The Miami Heat are off to a 1-1 start in the 2024-25 season, and they’ll host the Detroit Pistons on Monday night at Kaseya Center.

Detroit has yet to win a game, losing to the Indiana Pacers, Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics – three playoff-caliber teams – in their first three games. They did cover as underdogs against Boston on Saturday, but Miami is another playoff contender that Detroit isn’t expected to beat. 

Last season, the Pistons were one of the worst teams in the NBA, but they have some more veterans – Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. – that should raise their floor this season.

Can Jimmy Butler and company handle the Pistons at home?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, key players to watch and my best bet on Monday. 

Pistons vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Pistons +8.5 (-105)
• Heat -8.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Pistons: +280
• Heat: -355

Total

• 230 (Over -108/Under -112)

Pistons vs. Heat How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Oct. 28
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Kaseya Center
• How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports (Local), NBA League Pass
• Pistons record: 0-3
• Heat record: 1-1

Pistons vs. Heat Injury Reports

Pistons Injury Report

• Bobi Klintman – out
• Ausar Thompson – out

Heat Injury Report

• Kevin Love – out
• Josh Christopher – out

Pistons vs. Heat Key Players to Watch

Detroit Pistons

Cade Cunningham: Detroit may be 0-3, but Cunningham is off to a strong start this season, averaging 27.3 points, 5.0 rebounds and 8.0 assists per game while shooting 47.8 percent from the field. Can he make the leap to All-Star status this season? 

Miami Heat

Jimmy Butler: Butler had a rough game in Miami’s season opener against the Orlando Magic, scoring just three points on 1-of-8 shooting, but he bounced back against Charlotte, scoring 26 points while adding eight rebounds and eight assists. This is a contract year for Butler, who is looking to cash in on a major deal in the offseason. 

Pistons vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

There’s a prop that I absolutely love in this game, and I shared it in today’s Peter’s Points – my column with my NBA best bets for the day: 

It’s been a rough start to the season for Bam Adebayo, but I’m going to buy low on the Miami Heat big man on Monday against the Detroit Pistons.

I employed a similar strategy for Tyrese Maxey on Sunday – taking his points total over – and he responded with 45 in an overtime win. 

While I don’t think Adebayo goes for 40, he’s due for some positive shooting regression after a 6-for-17 showing his last time out. The usage is there, which is a good sign for him to go OVER against Detroit. 

Over the last four seasons, Bam has averaged at least 18.7 points per game and he dominated the Pistons in the 2023-24 campaign. In four games, Adebayo had 22, 18, 20 and 22 points against Detroit, and he’s scored at least 15 points in every game against them dating back to November 2019, clearing 16.5 points in 10 of 12 meetings.

Detroit is 26th in defensive rating so far this season, making Bam a great bounce-back target tonight. 

Pick: Bam Adebayo OVER 16.5 Points (-125)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.