Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 NFL Player Props for Week 12 (Matthew Stafford Will Struggle vs. Eagles)

Ranking the top 10 player prop bets to wager on for NFL Week 12

Matthew Stafford will struggle to go over his passing yards total on Sunday night against the Eagles. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

We got back on track with the Week 11 edition of the Player Prop Countdown, taking a step in the direction of getting our season-long record back in the green. Most notably, we cashed the No. 1 player prop of Josh Allen to go over 6.5 rush attempts, which he soared by, finishing with 12.

Let's see if we can be profitable for a second straight week in Week 12. Let's dive into my top 10 player props for Week 12 action.

• Player Prop Season-to-Date Record: 53-56-1 (-2.86 units)

NFL Best Player Props for Week 12

10) Aaron Jones OVER 61.5 Rush Yards (-110)

The Vikings' path to beating the Bears on Sunday is going to be running the football. The Bears have one of the best secondaries in the NFL, but they struggle when it comes to stopping the run, ranking 24th in opponent rush EPA and 26th in opponent yards per carry (4.8).

Aaron Jones is averaging 15.7 carries and 57.6 rush yards per game this season. He should be well-poised to have a big game against a bad run defense.

9) David Montgomery UNDER 57.5 Rush Yards (-109)

This may be a hot take, but I think we're going to see Jahmyr Gibbs get more of the carries in this Lions offense. David Montgomery has been great on the goalline, but he's averaging 4.3 yards per carry while Gibbs is averaging 6.0. Detroit would be smart to start giving more carries to the more efficient back.

Montgomery has rushed for 33 or fewer yards in three of the Lions' last five games.

8) Brian Robinson OVER 68.5 Rush Yards (-117)

Taking the OVER on rushing yards for whatever running back is facing the Dallas Cowboys has been a profitable strategy all season so I'm going to do exactly that when it comes to the Commanders this weekend. Brian Robinson Jr. has been averaging 4.5 yards per carry and 65.5 rush yards per game and now the Washington running back gets to take on a Dallas defense that ranks dead last in opponent rush EPA, 28th in opponent rush success rate while giving up 4.7 yards per carry.

Teams have shown you can run the ball against the Cowboys, laying out the blueprint for how their future opponents should draw up their game plan against them.

7) D’Andre Swift UNDER 62.5 Rush Yards (-111)

The Minnesota Vikings have the best run defense in the NFL, leading the league in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate while also allowing the second-fewest yards per carry at 3.6.

D'Andre Swift of the Bears is averaging 63.5 rush yards per game, but now Chicago is throwing the ball more in recent games with 60.91% of their plays in their last three games being passing plays, the 10th highest rate in the NFL.

6) Michael Wilson Touchdown (+340)

Michael Wilson is the clear No. 2 wide receiver and No. 3 pass-catcher on the Cardinals, and now they get to face a Seahawks team that ranks 25th in opponent dropback EPA and 29th in opponent dropback success rate since Week 6.

Wilson has already scored three touchdowns this season while the Seahawks give up 1.5 passing touchdowns per game.

5) Matthew Stafford UNDER 242.5 Pass yards (-115)

The Philadelphia Eagles lead the league in opponent yards per pass attempt (5.5) while allowing the second-fewest total passing yards per game at 173.2. Since Week 6, they rank second in opponent dropback EPA and first in opponent dropback success rate.

Matthew Stafford has a tough order infront of him on Sunday Night Football.

4) C.J. Stroud UNDER 36.5 Long Completion (-116)

The Titans have allowed only seven completions of 20+ air yards (2nd in NFL) and they also have an opponent completion percentage of 20% on deep targets (1st in NFL). They have also allowed only 23 passing plays of 20+ yards this season, the fifth fewest mark in the NFL.

The Texans may win and cover this game, but I don't think they're going to do it by throwing deep balls. I'll bet on C.J. Stroud's longest completion being under 36.5 yards.

3) Bucky Irving OVER 50.5 Rush Yards (-115)

Buck Irving is averaging 5.1 yards per carry this season and now he gets to take on the worst run defense in the league. The Giants are 27th in opponent rush EPA, 24th in opponent rush success rate, and give up 5.3 yards per carry which is the worst mark in the league by 0.3 yards.

2) Joshua Karty OVER 1.5 Made Fields Goals (-121)

The Eagles have the fifth-best red zone defense in the NFL, allowing teams to score a touchdown on just 46.43% of red zone trips against them. They'll take on the Rams on Sunday night who are 25th in red zone offense, scoring a touchdown on just 50% of their red zone trips. That recipe typically leads to plenty of field goals, so I'll bet on the Rams' kicker to kick two between the uprights in prime time.

1) George Pickens OVER 23.5 Longest Reception (-120)

My No. 1 player prop this week is a bet on George Pickens on Thursday Night Football.

Pickens has been known to make explosive plays all season. I'm surprised his longest reception prop is set at just 22.5. He has had a reception of 27 yards or longer in eight of his 10 starts this season. He has also had a reception of 30+ yards in five straight games.

The Browns have allowed 36 passing plays of 20+ yards this season, the fourth most in the NFL.

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NFL Week 12 Betting Articles

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