Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 NFL Player Props for Week 14 (Justin Jefferson Will Torch Falcons Secondary)

Ranking the top 10 player props to bet on for NFL Week 14.

Bet the OVER on Justin Jefferson's receiving yards against the Falcons. / Nick Wosika-Imagn Images

It was another tough week for the Player Prop Countdown in Week 13. Fading Saquon Barkley was a terrible choice, even against a strong Ravens run defense. We finished the week with a record of 3-7 for -4.37 units, which was the worst week of the Player Prop Countdown this season.

With our season-to-date record going in the wrong direction at 61-68-1 for -7.8 units, all we can do is try to get hot in the final five weeks. If we want that to happen we need to take things one week at a time so let's try to get back on track in Week 14.

As always, here are my 10 favorites prop bets for this week's NFL action.

• Player Prop Season-to-Date Record: 61-68-1 for -7.8 units

NFL Best Prop Bets for Week 14

10) Mac Jones UNDER 202.5 Pass Yards (-115)

Mac Jones looked strong against the Texans last week when he replaced an injured Trevor Lawrence, but as a whole, he's been horrific when at quarterback for the Jaguars this season. Amongst the 42 quarterbacks who have played at least 100 snaps this season, Jones ranks 39th in EPA+CPOE composite and 40th in adjusted EPA per play. He's also averaging a measly 5.6 yards per pass attempt.

Now, he has to face a Titans team that's allowing the second-fewest yards per pass attempt this season at 6.0 while allowing the fewest overall passing yards at 171.8. That leads me to believe he won't reach 203 passing yards on Sunday.

9) Kirk Cousins OVER 34.5 Pass Attempts (-114)

The Vikings lead the NFL in opponent EPA per Rush and Opponent Rush Success Rate meaning the Falcons will likely need their quarterback to throw the ball early and often against his former team. He's averaging 33.5 pass attempts per game this season which is right around where his set total for pass attempts is in this game, but given the likely game script, the Falcons will have to throw the ball to keep up with the Vikings offense.

A mix of game plan, game script, and Kirk wanting to have a big performance against his former team leads me to believe he'll have at least 35 attempts in Minnesota on Sunday.

8) Juwan Johnson Anytime Touchdown (+240)

Taysom Hill was the Saints' go-to weapon when they got in the red zone but now with the dynamic player sidelined for the rest of the season, they’re going to have to look another direction and I think tight end Juwan Johnson will be the biggest benefactor.

We already saw him have an increased workload last week when Hill left the game, seeing seven total targets and hauling in five receptions for 36 yards. If that continues this week, look for him to find the end zone for the third time this season.

7) Will Levis OVER 208.5 Pass Yards (-115)

We're betting on both quarterbacks in this Toilet Bowl of an AFC South matchup. My No. 10 ranked player prop is on Mac Jones to go under his passing yards and I'm also going to play Will Levis to go over his passing yards at 208.5.

The Jaguars' secondary has been the worst in the NFL this season. They're dead last in the league in opponent dropback EPA, opponent dropback success rate, and opponent yards per pass attempt (8.0). Their 8.0 yards per pass attempt allowed is the worst mark in the league by 0.6 yards per throw.

Levis has had his struggles at times this season, but even he can have a big day against the Jacksonville defense.

6) Jordan Love UNDER 252.5 Pass Yards (-115)

Jordan Love has a tough matchup ahead of him on Thursday night against the Lions. Detroit's secondary has stepped up in a big way of late, ranking first in both opponent dropback EPA and opponent dropback success rate since Week 6. They're also allowing just 6.3 yards per pass attempt, the eighth fewest in the NFL.

The Packers would be smart to stick to the run game in this divisional duel.

5) Tyrone Tracy Jr. OVER 58.5 Rush Yards (-120)

For the second straight week, I'm going to back Tyrone Tracy Jr. to go over his rushing yards total. The Saints are 31st in the NFL in opponent rush success rate and opponent rush EPA while allowing 5.1 yards per rush attempt so if Tracy gets the carries, he should have a big game.

He played 73% of snaps last week, which is a great sign for his usage, but he still only rushed nine teams. The Giants need to get their explosive rookie running back the ball more often and if they do that on Sunday, he should soar over this total.

4) Jerome Ford Anytime Touchdown (+375)

If last week was any indication, the Browns are going to start giving Jerome Ford the bulk of the carries moving forward. Nick Chubb has been downright bad since returning from injury, averaging a measly 3.0 yards per carry, which is 1.8 per rush fewer than Ford. Last week against the Broncos, Chubb played just 34% of snaps while Ford played 66%.

If that continues in Week 14 against the Steelers, you're getting a primary running back at almost 4-1 odds to find the end zone. Sounds like a great bet to me.

3) Justin Herbert OVER 227.5 Pass Yards (-115)

The Chiefs' pass defense has been a bottom-10 unit the past handful of weeks. Since Week 6, they rank 26th in opponent dropback EPA and 25th in opponent dropback success rate.

Meanwhile, the Chargers continue to lean more and more toward the passing game. 63.31% of their offensive plays have been pass plays in their last three games, a nearly 10% increase from their season average. The injury to J.K. Dobbins is likely going to lead to even more passing opportunities for Herbert.

That, paired with the fact the Chargers may find themselves playing from behind, could lead to a big game for Herbert.

2) Saquon Barkley OVER 112.5 Rush Yards (-115)

Saquon Barkley has put himself in the MVP conversation and now he gets to face a Panthers defense that ranks 31st in opponent Rush EPA and dead last in opponent rush success rate while allowing 4.8 yards per carry.

The Eagles also run the ball over 5% more than any other team in the NFL and Barkley has rushed at least 22 times in five of their last six games. I expect him to explode for a massive game on Sunday.

1) Justin Jefferson OVER 81.5 Receiving Yards (-117)

The Falcons' secondary is already thin but an injury to cornerback Mike Hughes has caused them to be significantly susceptible to the pass. Ladd McConkey recorded 117 receiving yards against them last week and a primary receiver having a big game against Atlanta has become the norm throughout the season.

Jefferson is already averaging 86.5 receiving yards per game this season so as long as he can hit his season average against a porous secondary like Atlanta's, he'll comfortably hit the over on his receiving yards total.

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NFL Week 14 Betting Articles

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