Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 NFL Player Props for Week 10 (Khalil Shakir Will Thrive vs. Colts)

Ranking the top 10 player prop bets to wager on NFL Week 10

Bills Khalil Shakir finds an open lane to run in during second half action at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Oct. 20, 2024. / Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The first half of the 2024 NFL season is in the books which means it's time to lock in with our bets. We finished slightly in the red with our player props so far, but one winning week will get us right back in the green.

You can check out my best side and total bets in this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets". In this article, I'm going to rank my top 10 player props I'll be wagering on.

• Player Prop Season-to-Date Record: 44-45-1 (-0.8 units)

NFL Best Player Props for Week 10

10) Chase Brown UNDER 58.5 Rush Yards (-113)

As bad as the Ravens' secondary is, their defense has been great against the run this season. They're third in the NFL in opponent rush EPA and first in opponent rush success rate. They're also allowing the fewest yards per carry, giving up 3.4 yards per rush, 0.3 fewer than the next best defense.

The Bengals will need to rely on their passing game to attack the Ravens where they're weak, so we're going to fade their running back and take the UNDER on Chase Brown's rushing yards.

9) James Conner OVER 79.5 Rush Yards (-118)

The Jets have a great secondary this season, but they've had struggles when it comes to stopping the run. They currently rank 26th in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate, which will set things up well for the Cardinals running back, James Conner.

Conner is averaging 16.3 carries per game, 4.5 yards per rush, and 73.8 yards per game. He's also had 18+ carries in three straight games. If the Cardinals have a smart gameplan, they'll lean on Conner which will put him in a great spot to go over his rushing yards total.

8) C.J. Stroud UNDER 230.5 Pass Yards (-114)

C.J. Stroud has a tough test ahead of him on Sunday Night Football. Believe it or not, the Lions's secondary has been one of the best in the NFL this season. Since Week 5, they lead the NFL and opponent dropback EPA and fifth in opponent dropback success rate.

Stroud has regressed this season. He enters this week ranking just 24th in the NFL in EPA+CPOE composite, which is one spot below Daniel Jones and one spot above Drake Maye. He has only reached 200+ pass yards once in the last four games. I don't think he hits the OVER on his total on Sunday night against the stout Lions secondary.

7) Alvin Kamara OVER 111.5 Rush + Rec Yards (-115)

The Saints have no options left on offense other than Alvin Kamara. With Chris Olave out, they'll have to get the ball in his hands as often as possible, like they did last week when he ran the ball 29 times. Now, he gets to face a Falcons defense that ranks 24th in opponent rush EPA and 31st in opponent rush success rate.

He had 119 rushing and receiving yards against the Falcons back in Week 4.

6) Evan Engram Touchdown +240

With Christian Kirk injured, the Jacksonville Jaguars have been forced to look to their tight end early and often over the past few weeks. As a result, Evan Engram has seen 10 targets in two of his last four games, hauling in a minimum of four receptions in each of them.

It’s also worth noting Trevor Lawrence has been playing much better of late, and he now has to face a Vikings team that is one of the most elite run defenses in the NFL. Throwing the ball, hopefully to his tight end, is going to be one of the Jaguars’ routes to success on Sunday.

Engram has just one touchdown this season, but based on previous season’s results, more touchdown receptions are going to come his way sooner rather than later.

Note: There's a chance Lawrence misses Week 10 with a shoulder injury.

5) Tyrone Tracy Jr. OVER 72.5 Rush Yards (-114)

Tyrone Tracy Jr. continues to be one of the most underrated running backs in the NFL this season. He's averaging 4.97 yards per carry on the year and now he and the Giants get to face a Panthers defense that allowed 4.6 yards per carry, 31st in opponent rush EPA, and 30th in opponent rush success rate.

Tracy Jr has had 16+ carries in four of his last five games. If New York gets out to any sort of lead, they're going to ride Tracy to victory.

4) Jayden Daniels UNDER 221.5 Pass Yards (-115)

The Commanders have only faced one team this season who currently ranks inside the top half of the NFL in opponent EPA per play. They could be in for a rude awakening against an elite Steelers defense that is well poised to shut down the rookie quarterback.

The Commanders have also relied on their run game more lately. They not have a 51.86% run play rate this season with a 54.87% run play rate over their last three games.

3) Drake Maye OVER 31.5 Pass Attempts (-120)

We're keeping this game simple. In the three games that Drake Maye has started and finished, he has had pass attempt totals of 33, 37, and 41. I expect a similar result this week considering the Patriots are 6-point underdogs to the Bears, which means they may once again find themselves in a negative game script, forcing Maye to throw the ball.

2) Nick Folk OVER 1.5 Made Field Goals (-105)

The Chargers enter this week ranking second in red zone defense, keeping teams to scoring a touchdown on just 40% of red zone trips. Teams are also averaging 1.9 field goal attempts per game against the Chargers.

That sets things up well for the Titans kicker, Nick Folk, who is 11-for-11 in field goal attempts this season. This game could end up being a field goal-fest, which leads me to believe Folk will have no issue recording two made field goals.

1) Khalil Shakir OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

The Bills receiving core is banged up this week. Curtis Samuel, Amari Cooper, and Keon Coleman are questionable heading into their Week 10 game against the Colts, which sets things up nicely for Khalil Shakir. He's already averaging 58.9 receiving yards per game this season, so he should have no issue hitting his season average in yards considering Buffalo will likely have to lean on him in this game.

It's also worth noting the Colts rank 26th in opponent yards per pass attempt, 21st in opponent dropback EPA, and 19th in opponent dropback success rate.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!