Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 NFL Player Props for Week 11 (Josh Allen Will Trust His Legs vs. Chiefs)

Ranking the top 10 player prop bets to wager on for NFL Week 11

Iain MacMillan | Nov 14, 2024

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) is caught from behind by Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones (95). / Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK

Last week's edition of the Player Prop Countdown suffered a few heartbreakers. C.J. Stroud went over his passing yards total by two yards, Alvin Kamara went under his rushing and receiving yards total by three yards, and a missed 49-yard field goal from Nick Folk turned what could've been a great week to a 4-6 result.

Now, we face a bit of adversity as we head into Week 11. If you want my best bets for each game in terms of spreads and moneylines, you can check those out in the "Road to 272 Bets." Here, I'm going to rank my top 10 player props for this week's action.

Player Prop Season-to-Date Record: 48-51-1 (-3.30 units)

NFL Best Player Props for Week 11

10) Anthony Richardson OVER 177.5 Pass Yards (-115)

You may be surprised to find out that despite me being one of the most vocal Anthony Richardson haters on the internet, I'm going to bet on him this week. As poor as I believe he has played this season, I think the market has overcorrected his passing yards total in his first game back as the Colts starting quarterback, offering a great "buy low" spot on the second-year quarterback.

The Jets' defense has been horrific lately, allowing 6.2 yards per pass attempt over their last three games and ranking last in the league in opponent EPA since firing Robert Saleh. We can't evaluate this defense like they are still the elite unit we have seen in recent years.

Richardson to hit at least 178 yards isn't too big an ask for him.

9) Russell Wilson OVER 29.5 Pass Attempts (-128)

I have won plenty of bets this season taking the OVER on the passing yards total of whichever quarterback is playing against the Ravens. They have a perfect mix of a terrible secondary but a strong offense, forcing teams to throw the ball to keep up with Lamar Jackson and company.

This week, instead of taking Russell Wilson's OVER on his passing yards, I'm going to take the OVER on his attempts. He has attempts of 29, 28, and 28 in his three starts so far so we only need a couple more throws by the former Seahawk and Bronco for us to hit this bet.

While the Ravens secondary is weak, they have an elite run defense which should lead to more 2nd and long and 3rd and long situations, which will force the Steelers to throw often than they would when leaning on their run game.

8) De’Von Achane OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the Dolphins offense, they have begun using De'Von Achane as a receiver just as much as they've used him as a rusher. He has seen a combined 21 targets, hauling in 19 of them, over the past three weeks yet his receiving yards total is set at just 35.5 against a weak Raiders defense.

If a wide receiver was seeing as many targets as Achane is seeing, his yards total would be well above 35.5. I think Achane has a big game through the air for Miami on Sunday.

7) Zach Ertz UNDER 3.5 Receptions (-105)

The Eagles have done a fantastic job defending against tight ends this season, allowing the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season. Considering Zach Ertz is averaging only 3.7 receptions per game this season, it seems like a great opportunity to take the UNDER on his receptions total.

Ertz is a boom or bust player. He hauled in seven receptions against the Bears but then followed it up by catching just one pass the following week against the Giants. I think he's more likely to have a "bust" performance against the Eagles on Thursday night.

6) Demarcus Robinson Touchdown (+400)

The Rams play a ton of three-receiver sets and it’s Demarcus Robinson who slots in that spot next to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. He has played at least 83% of offensive snaps in eight of nine games this season and has four touchdowns across his last three. Last week, he only hauled in one reception for 23 yards, but five targets shows that he’s still getting plenty of looks.

The Patriots’ secondary is top heavy, including Chirstian Gonzalez who will be covering Kupp or Nacua, leaving Robinson open as a potential target to attack the lack of depth on the New England defense. 4-1 odds for a player who already has five touchdowns this season seems like a no-brainer.

5) Joe Burrow OVER 266.5 Pass Yards (-115)

I think the Chargers' secondary is in for a huge regression game. The quarterbacks they’ve faced this season include Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston, Will Levis, Patrick Mahomes, and Kyler Murray. Seven of those nine quarterbacks are some of the weakest the NFL has to offer.

Now, they face Joe Burrow and a Bengals offense that has thrown the ball on 67.16% of plays over the last three games, the second-highest rate in the league. Burrow is also averaging 267.2 passing yards per game this season, meaning he just has to hit his season average for us to cash this bet.

4) Kyle Pitts OVER 3.5 Receptions (-139)

The Broncos' secondary will likely do a great job of shutting down Drake London and Darnell Mooney as they've continuously been able to shut down their opponent's top receivers every week. That's going to open things up for Kyle Pitts. The Broncos have already struggled to defend tight ends at times this season. Brock Bowers had eight catches against them earlier this season, Travis Kelce had eight catches against them last week, and Cade Otton also racked up seven receptions against them.

Pitts has hauled in at least four receptions in three of the last four games and should be well poised to hit that number again on Sunday.

3) Jauan Jennings Touchdown (+220)

Last week was the first week Jauan Jennings played when Brandon Aiyuk was out and he clearly filled Aiyuk’s role. He played 91% of snaps, saw 11 targets, and hauled in seven receptions for 93 yards. We should now treat him as the No. 1 receiving option for the 49ers moving forward.

It also helps that the Seahawks allow 1.6 passing touchdowns per game and rank 21st in opponent dropback EPA this season.

2) Sam Darnold Interception (-115)

The old version of Sam Darnold that we're used to seeing has shown up lately. He has thrown five interceptions in the past two games, plenty of which were questionable throws at best. Now he has to take on a solid defense and a great secondary in Tennessee. I expect the interception streak to continue.

He has thrown an interception in seven of nine games this season.

1) Josh Allen OVER 6.5 Attempts (-139)

Josh Allen runs the ball more against the Chiefs than against any other team. In seven starts against Kansas City in his career, he has averaged 10.14 attempts per game and has never had a game against them where he has ran fewer than seven times.

We have also seen him take off and run more late in the season and in the playoffs than early season. To put it simply, when it's a big game, Allen takes off with his legs early and often and no game is bigger than when he and the Bills face Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.