Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 NFL Player Props for Week 16 (Bet Bucky Irving to Torch Cowboys Defense)

Iain MacMillan | 4 Hours Ago

Bet the OVER on Bucky Irving's rushing yards in NFL Week 16 against the Cowboys. / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

There are just three weeks left of the NFL regular season which means we have 30 player props left to bet. Let's see how hot we can get in the final stretch of the season.

This week's Player Prop Countdown features a play on four of the five stand alone games this week including a player on Bucky Irving against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. Let's start the countdown.

Player Prop Season-to-Date Record: 71-78-1 for -7.45 units

NFL Best Prop Bets for Week 16

10) Patrick Mahomes UNDER 225.5 Pass Yards (-115) via BetMGM

Not only is Patrick Mahomes banged-up for Saturday's game, but the Houston Texans have one of the best secondaries in the NFL. They lead the NFL in opponent completion percentage, allowing teams to complete just 57.66% of passes. They're also second in opponent dropback EPA and first in opponent dropback success rate

The Chiefs may lean on their run game and when they do throw the ball, Mahomes could struggle.

9) Kimani Vidal OVER 23.5 Rush Yards (-130) via DraftKings

Since J.K. Dobbins went down with an injury, you would think Gus Edwards would be the one getting the bulk of the carries, but most of the snaps have been given to third-string back, Kimani Vidal. He played 53% of snaps in Week 14 against the Chiefs and then 67% of snaps in Week 15 against the Buccaneers.

Unfortunately, the Chargers immediately played from behind, which led them to abandon the run game in favor of airing it out. If this game remains relatively close, the Chargers will run the ball with Vidal. If he plays over 60% of snaps again, he should cruise over 27.5 rush yards on Thursday night.

8) Chigoziem Okonkwo Anytime Touchdown (+460) via Caesars

Chigoziem Okonkwo has thrives when Mason Rudolph has got in the game including last week when he hauled in eight receptions on 10 targets for 59 yards. Now, he gets to face a Colts defense that has allowed the second most touchdowns to tight ends this season with nine and third most receptions to the position at 85.

Okonkwo is a great dark horse touchdown scorer at +460 odds.

7) Bijan Robinson Longest Rush OVER 18.5 Yards (-120) via BetMGM

The New York Giants have allowed 18 rush plays of 20+ yards this season, the most in the NFL. That should set up Bijan Robinson for some explosive plays in their game on Sunday.

Additionally, with Michael Penix Jr. set to make his first career start, I expect the Falcons to lean on their run game and not ask too much from their rookie quarterback.

6) Tua Tagovailoa Longest Completion UNDER 33.5 Yards (-115) via BetMGM

The San Francisco 49ers have allowed the fewest passing plays of 20+ yards this season at 28. Now, they get to face a Dolphins team that has stayed away from deep shots of late, instead relying on quick passes. As a result, Tua Tagovailoa hasn't had a completion of longer than 30 yards in four straight weeks.

The 49ers defense will keep things infront of them on Sunday.

5) Michael Penix Jr. UNDER 229.5 Pass Yards (-115) via BetMGM

As excited as I am to watch Penix Jr. in his first start, I'm surprised his passing yards total is as high as it is. The Falcons leaned on their run game on Monday night against the Raiders and I expect them to do the same against the Giants. They can beat New York by keeping the ball on the ground and they likely don't want to ask too much of their rookie quarterback in his first career start.

The Falcons are listed at 8.5-point favorites which means there's a chance they get out to a dominant lead early. If they do, it should further contribute to a run-heavy game script.

4) Caleb Williams OVER 218.5 Pass Yards (-114) via FanDuel

Who is going to play in the Lions secondary? Khalil Dorsey and Carlon Davis III are now on IR and Brian Branch is listed as questionable and did not participate in Wednesday's practice. A team can only take so many injuries before opposing offenses start lighting them up and I think the Lions have reached that point.

Caleb Williams threw for 256 yards against the Lions just a few weeks ago and now he gets to play against backups. I don't see why he can't go over this number against Detroit once again.

3) Jaylen Warren Anytime Touchdown (+320) via FanDuel

Jaylen Warren has out-snapped Najee Harris in two straight weeks, playing 52% of snaps against the Browns in Week 14 and then 53% of snaps against the Eagles last week. I could see the Steelers leaning on Warren even more in Week 16 and if they find themselves playing from behind against the Ravens, they could get Warren involved in the pass game as well.

I love his odds to find the end zone at +320.

2) Jerome Ford OVER 44.5 Rush Yards (-120) via BetMGM

Nick Chubb going down with an injury could be a blessing in disguise for the Browns offense. Jerome Ford has been the far more effective running back this season, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Now he gets to face a Bengals defense that ranks 30th in opponent rush EPA and 31st in opponent rush success rate.

Don't be surprised if Ford has a big game for the Browns.

1) Bucky Irving OVER 50.5 Rush Yards (-120) via BetMGM

Bucky Irving has established himself as one of the best running backs in the NFL this season, averaging a blistering 5.6 yards per carry. He's fresh off a game against the Chargers where he went for 117 yards on 15 carries and the Bucs have began leaning on him as their primary back.

Now he and the Buccaneers get to face a Cowboys defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in opponent rush EPA while ranking 29th in opponent yards per carry allowing 4.8 yards per rush.

He's poised for a massive game on Sunday night.