Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 NFL Player Props for Week 4 (Saquon Barkley Will Stay Hot vs. Buccaneers)

Ranking the top 10 player prop bets to wager on for NFL Week 4

Iain MacMillan | 5 Hours Ago

Sep 22, 2024; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) hands off to running back Saquon Barkley (26) against the New Orleans Saints during the second half at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

There are plenty of ways to bet on the NFL and some people like to stick to player props over betting on sides and totals. If you're one of those people, you've come to the right place.

Every week this season, I give out my 10 favorite player props. Through the first three weeks, my record is sitting at 15-14-1 (-0.83 units).

I'll be breaking down all my picks for Week 4 in this article, but if you want to hear some more in-depth analysis, you can hear me talk about them in the latest episode of the Bacon Bets Podcast.

Best NFL Player Props for Week 4

10) James Cook UNDER 52.5 Rush Yards (-117)

James Cook in the Bills' have a tough task ahead of them on Sunday Night Football when they face a Baltimore Ravens defense that leads the NFL in opponent yards per carry, giving up just 2.8 yards per rush.

It's also worth noting Cook has only had 11 carries in each of the last two games so he'll have to be extremely efficient with his touches to go over his set total of 52.5 rushing yards.

9) Caleb Williams OVER 223.5 Pass yards (-115)

I bet against Caleb Williams' passing yards total in the first two weeks, but now I think it's time to buy some stock in the No. 1 overall pick. He and the Bears get to face a Rams defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up 9.4 yards per throw. That's the most in the league by 1.2 yards per pass attempt.

Williams threw the ball 52 total times last week against the Colts, racking up 363 yards. I think we see a similar performance from him on Sunday.

8) Saquon Barkley OVER 77. Rush Yards (-115)

Saquon Barkley is the betting favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year for good reason. He's averaging 5.6 yards per rush this season and his worst rushing game was against the Falcons when he still managed to total 95 yards on the ground.

Now, he gets to face a Buccaneers defense that ranks 26th in opponent yards per carry, allowing 4.9 yards per rush.

7) Andy Dalton OVER 21.5 Completions (+105)

Andy Dalton will be facing his former team in his second start of the season for the Carolina Panthers. It should be a favorable matchup for the Red Rifle as the Bengals' rank 30th in the NFL in opponent completion percentage, allowing teams to complete 75% of passes against them.

Considering the Panthers had success last week with Dalton throwing the ball 37 total times, I expect them to lean on him again on Sunday to see if he can re-create last week's success.

6) Pat Freiermuth Anytime TD (+400)

George Pickens is the clear No. 1 option in the passing game for the Steelers, but it's the tight end, Pat Freiermuth, who's No. 2. He's second on the team in both targets (13) and receptions (12) so it's only a matter of time before he scores his first touchdown of the year.

It’s also worth noting the Indianapolis Colts allowed Cole Kmet, the tight end for the Chicago Bears, to haul in 10 receptions for 97 yards and a touchdown last week. That should set up Freiermuth for a big performance on Sunday.

5) Jonathan Taylor UNDER 73.5 Rush Yards (-115)

The Steelers enter Week 4 ranking second in the NFL in opponent yards per carry, keeping opposing teams to just 3.5 yards per rush and 71.3 total rushing yards per game. Jonathan Taylor may enter this game a little overvalued after two strong starts, but the Colts would be smart to try to attack the Steelers through the air this week instead of leaning on the run game.

4) Ezekiel Elliott UNDER 27.5 Rush Yards (-114)

As long as sportsbooks continue to post rushing yard totals for Ezekiel Elliott, I'm going to continue to bet his UNDERs. He played 51% of snaps in Week 1, 40% of snaps in Week 2, and 19% of snaps last week. In that game last week he gained just six yards on three carries.

It's also worth noting the Cowboys have run the ball on just 31.63% of plays this season, the second lowest run rate in the NFL this season.

3) Garrett Wilson UNDER 4.5 Receptions (+110)

The Denver Broncos have done an extremely good job shutting down their opponent's top receivers this season. They kept DK Metcalf to three catches for 29 yards, George Pickens to two catches for 29 yards, and Mike Evans to two catches for 17 yards.

That's bad news for the Jets' top receiver, Garrett Wilson, this week. I love that we can get plus-money on him to go UNDER 4.5 receptions on Sunday.

2) Jared Goff UNDER 233.5 Pass Yards (-115)

The Detroit Lions got away from running the ball in Week 2 and lost the game. They returned to their run-first strategy in Week 3, running the ball on 63.24% of plays, and it worked to perfection. I expect them to keep Goff's passing attempts limited on Monday Night Football.

The fact the Seahawks allow the fewest yards per pass attempt through the first three weeks at 3.9 also helps our chances of cashing this bet.

1) Kyler Murray OVER 230.5 Pass Yards (-114)

Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals have the chance to host the Washington Commanders in Week 4 who have arguably the worst defense in the NFL so far this season. They're allowing 8.0 yards per pass attempt and 255.7 total passing yards per game through the first three weeks.

Murray averages 239.4 passing yards per game in his career so all we're asking him to do is hit his career average against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL and this bet will be a winner.