Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 NFL Players Props for Week 5 (Jordan Love Will Torch Rams Defense)

Ranking the top 10 player prop bets to wager on for NFL Week 5

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) passes the ball against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, September 29, 2024, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The Vikings won the game, 31-29. Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / Tork Mason / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

There are an almost unlimited amount of ways to bet on the NFL, but in the weekly edition of the Player Prop Countdown, I like to focus on exactly what the title suggests; Player props.

Every week this season, I give out my 10 favorite player props. Through the first four weeks, my record is sitting at 20-19-1 (+1.83 units)

I'll be breaking down all my picks for Week 5 in this article, but if you want to hear some more in-depth analysis, you can hear me talk about them in the latest episode of the Bacon Bets Podcast.

Best NFL Player Props for Week 5

10) Trevor Lawrence OVER 234.5 Pass Yards (-111)

I'm ready to buy low on not only the Jacksonville Jaguars, but Trevor Lawrence as well. He and the Jags have a favorable matchup ahead of them this week as the Colts' secondary has struggled through the first four weeks, ranking 25th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.1), 21st in opponent dropback success rate, and 24th in opponent EPA per dropback.

We can also feel comfortable knowing the Jaguars will throw the ball early and often. They rank sixth in the league in pass play percentage, throwing the ball on 61.9% of snaps. Lawrence will get plenty of opportunities to go over his passing yards total this week.

9) Jayden Daniels UNDER 212.5 Pass Yards (-115)

While I'm buying low on Lawrence, I'm selling high on Jayden Daniels who has to face the best defense he will have had to play against this season. The Commanders have had several cupcake defenses to start the season including the Cardinals and Bengals who have arguably the two worst secondaries in the league.

Now, they have to face a Browns defense that ranks eighth in opponent yards per pass attempt, allowing just 5.8 yards per throw. I'll take the UNDER on the rookies' passing yards total in a game that may result in him coming back down to earth a bit.

8) Bijan Robinson OVER 91.5 Rush + Receiving (-114)

People are overreacting to Tyler Allgeier's strong Week 4. The Falcons went with the hot hand in the running game but that doesn't mean they're all of a sudden going to make Allgeier the top back and limit Robinson's playing time.

Bijan is still going to get the ball in his hands early and often, including in the passing game where he has proven to be a big weapon for the Falcons' offense.

He and the Falcons have a favorable matchup ahead of them on Thursday night. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank 29th in opponent yards per carry (5.0), 32nd in opponent rush EPA, and 25th in opponent rush success rate.

7) Andy Dalton UNDER 216.5 Pass Yards (-115)

Andy Dalton is going to come crashing back down to earth in the Panthers' Week 5 game against the Chicago Bears. The Bears secondary has proven to be one of the best in the league, ranking second in opponent dropback EPA, seventh in opponent dropback success rate, and only allowing 174.5 passing yards per game.

The Panthers would be smart to stick to the run game in this one and not force Dalton to throw the ball more than he has to.

6) Rome Odunze Anytime TD (+320)

Despite being fourth on the Chicago Bears in receptions, Rome Odunze has seen the second most targets with 23, which tells me that while the overall numbers aren’t there yet, they’re coming sooner rather than later.

He and the Bears passing offense have a favorable matchup in the Carolina Panthers this week which could set up for an Odunze breakout game.

Carolina ranks 27th in opponent dropback EPA and, more importantly, allows 2.3 passing touchdowns per game, the second most in the NFL.

To get north of 3-1 odds on the second most targeted receiver taking on one of the worst secondaries in the league is a no-brainer of a bet. Let’s bet on the rookie to find the end zone for the second time in his career.

5) Sam Darnold UNDER 220.5 Pass Yards (-115)

To continue the theme of buying low and selling high on players, I'm going to bet against Sam Darnold, who has been ultra-impressive to star the 2024 campaign. This week, he has to face arguably the best secondary in the NFL. The Jets allow only 128.0 passing yards per game along with 4.7 yards per pass attempt, both are inside the top two in the league,

Darnold is going to struggle for the first time this season when the Vikings take on the Jets in London.

4) Baker Mayfield OVER 22.5 Completions (-106)

The strength of the Falcons defense is their duo of safeties in Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates, which has forced teams to target short passes, underneath routes, and sideline throws. The result of that is the Falcons have allowed only 6.0 yards per pass attempt while also allowing teams to complete 73.44% of passes. That means we should expect plenty of completions for opposing quarterbacks, but their passing yards total will remain relatively low.

If that continues, Mayfield should hit 23 completions. He has gone over that total in three of his four starts this season.

3) Zack Moss UNDER 45.5 rush yards (-120)

Zack Moss has seen his snap percentage decrease over the past three weeks as the Bengals give more work to Chase Brown. He played 80% of snaps in Week 2 but that lowered to 76% in Week 3 and then 60% in Week 4.

Even if he does get carries, he has to face a Ravens defense that allows only 3.0 yards per carry, the best mark in the NFL. Don't expect Moss to have a big game this weekend.

2) Jordan Love OVER 255.5 Pass Yards (-115)

Jordan Love should be able to torch the Rams defense in Week 5. Los Angeles may have the worst secondary in the league, ranking 31st in opponent dropback EPA, 29th in opponent dropback success rate, and they're dead last in opponent yards per pass attempt allowing 8.6 yards per throw.

Love has already gone over this number in both starts and I see no reason why he can't soar over it once again.

1) Gardner Minshew Interception (-133)

Gardner Minshew has already thrown three interceptions this season and now he has to face an elite secondary in the Broncos. That's going to lead Minshew to make ill-advised throws as he attempts to fit the ball in tight windows in what will likely be a close game down the stretch.

I'm surprised we're able to get -133 odds on Minshew to throw a pick in a game that seems primed for him to do exactly that.

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NFL Week 5 Betting Content

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!