Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 Player Props for NFL Week 3 (Brandon Aiyuk Poised for Big Game vs. Rams)

Ranking the top 10 player props for Week 3 action in the NFL including Brandon Aiyuk against the Los Angeles Rams.

Iain MacMillan | Sep 19, 2024

Jan 7, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) celebrates after a play against the Los Angeles Rams during the first quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images / Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

The NFL season marches on as Week 3 kicks off tonight between the New England Patriots and New York Jets.

Every week this season, I'm going to be ranking my top 10 player props for the week. So far, I'm 10-9-1 (-0.11 units) through the first two weeks.

I'll be breaking down all of my picks in this article, but if you want to hear some more in-depth analysis, you can check out the latest episode of the Bacon Bets Podcast.

Let's dive into it.

Best NFL Player Props for Week 3

10) Lamar Jackson OVER 53.5 rushing yards (-111)

The Cowboys have struggled stopping the run this season, ranking 23rd in opponent yards per carry, allowing 4.9 yards per rush. Now, they take on one of the most potent rushing attacks in the NFL in the Ravens.

Lamar Jackson ran 16 times for 122 yards against the Chiefs in Week 1, largely because he was pressured by the Chiefs' pass rush early and often. With the Cowboys biggest defensive strength being their pass rush as well, I see Jackson getting flushed out of the pocket and being forced to pick up yards with his legs in this pivotal Week 3 showdown.

9) Terry McLaurin OVER 48.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

There's a lot of talk about Terry McLaurin being lined up on the left side the field, but he's still leading the team in targets with 12 and most receptions with eight. He only has 39 yards on those eight receptions, but now that he and the Commanders get to face a weak Bengals' secondary, I expect a breakout game for Scary Terry.

Let's keep in mind that if the point spread holds up, Washington will be playing from behind, setting the Commanders up for a negative game script and potential garbage time air yards.

8) Malik Willis UNDER 149.5 Pass Yards (-114)

Malik Willis and the Green Bay Packers head to Tennessee to take on the Titans this week and I expect little from their backup quarterback.

The Titans' defense has been unbelievably good this season. They rank second in the NFL in opponent yards per pass attempt, keeping them to just 3.9 yards per pass along with a completion percentage of just 54.24%.

Willis threw for 122 yards last week against the Colts, but completed just 12 passes on 14 attempts. Even if the Packers ask him to throw the ball more in this game, it wouldn't surprise me if he still manages just 12 completions. At the end of the day, the Packers are going to rely on their run game and Willis will be able to do little through the air.

7) Justice Hill Anytime TD +500

Despite Justice Hill being the backup to Derrick Henry and the former Titan receiving the bulk of the carries, Hill has been playing a higher percentage of snaps. He has been on the field for 54% of offensive snaps while Henry has played just 46%.

Hill has been a weapon in the passing game and I forsee an increased number of carries in the future. A 5-1 longshot bet on a "backup" running back who plays 54% snaps is too good of value for me to pass up.

6) Ezekiel Elliott UNDER 33.5 Rush Yards (-114)

Ezekiel Elliott may see his snap count continue to decrease. He played 51% of offensive snaps in Week 1 and then only 40% of offensive snaps in Week 1. He's also averaging a measly 3.5 yards per carry through the first two weeks.

Now, he and the Cowboys have to take on a Ravens defense that leads the league in opponent yards per carry, keeping them to 2.7 yards per rush.

This is gonna be a rough week for Zeke.

5) Brandon Aiyuk OVER 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

With Deebo Samuel out this week, it's time for Brandon Aiyuk to step up. He's been slow out of the gate this season, easing back into the mix after missing preseason due to his contract dispute, but he should feel more comfortable in Week 3 having played 87% of snaps in Week 2.

He and the 49ers have a dream matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, who have allowed 9.3 yards per pass attempt this season, one full yards more than the next worst team. He should be able to eat against this Rams secondary and I'm surprised his receiving yards total is set at a relatively low number of 64.5.

4) Kyle Pitts OVER 3.5 Receptions (-105)

The Atlanta Falcons take on the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football which could be a dream matchup for Kyle Pitts. The Chiefs have been atrocious defending against tight ends this season. They allowed Isaiah Likely to rack up nine receptions for 111 yards in Week 1 and then let Mike Gesicki of the Bengals to record seven catches for 91 yards in Week 2.

If that trend continues, Pitts could have his biggest game of the season on Sunday night.

3) Gabe Davis OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards (-117)

Christian Kirk is still being treated as the No. 1 receiver in Jacksonville based on his player props for this week, but if you look at the metrics the first two weeks, Gabe Davis may be the true No. 1 target for the Jaguars.

Kirk has hauled in just one receptions in each of the first two games. He played in 72% of snaps in Week 1 and 88% of snaps in Week 2. Meanwhile, Davis played 94% of snaps in Week 1 and 95% of snaps in Week 2, while leading the team in targets with 10 and being tied for the lead in receptions with six.

It may be time for us to starting looking at him as the top receiving option in Jacksonville and now is a good time to back him as he faces his former team, the Buffalo Bills, on Monday Night Football.

2) Alvin Kamara OVER 64.5 Rush Yards (-115)

The Philadelphia Eagles' run defense has been atrocious so far this season. They're dead last in opponent yards per carry, allowing 6.4 yards per rush, while also allowing a total of 157.5 rushing yards per game.

Now, they have to face Alvin Kamara who recorded 83 rushing yards in Week 1 and 115 rushing yards in Week 2, averaging 5.66 yards per carry. All things point to another monstrous performance by Kamara in Week 3.

1) Jared Goff OVER 1.5 Pass TDs (-133)

We have all seen the stat that there have been significantly fewer passing touchdowns so far this season than we've seen in years past, but it's time for some positive regression in that area and I think Jared Goff has a great opportunity to add to the passing touchdown total in the NFL.

The Arizona Cardinals have done a good job stopping the run this season, but a terrible job in the secondary, allowing teams to throw for 8.3 yards per pass attempt, the second most in the league. Goff, who threw the ball 55 times in Week 2, should have a huge bounce back performance on Sunday, hopefully resulting in him throwing at least two passing touchdowns.

This is my favorite prop of the Week 3 slate.