Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 Player Props for NFL Week 1 (Bet on Bijan Robinson, Fade Caleb Williams)

Ranking the top 10 player props for Week 1 action in the NFL including Bijan Robinson against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Nov 26, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) reacts after scoring a touchdown after a catch against the New Orleans Saints during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Week 1 of the NFL season is here!

For the fifth year in a row, I'm betting on a side or total for all 272 games, so if you want to check those out, head over to the "Road to 272 Bets."

Now, due to popular demand, I'm also going to be breaking down my favorite prop bets on a weekly basis. Welcome to the first edition of "Player Prop Countdown" where I count down my top 10 favorite player props for the week.

Let's dive into it.

10) Chris Godwin OVER 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

The Buccaneers' receivers are in a great spot this week against the Washington Commanders. The Commanders ranked 31st in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.5) and dead last in opponent passing yards per game (262.2). They did little this offseason to address that issue.

Godwin enters this game having averaged 60.2 receiving yards per game last season so as long as he hits his 2023 average against arguably the worst secondary in the NFL, this bet is going to be a winner.

9) Joe Mixon UNDER 55.5 Rushing yards (-115)

I'm not a believer in Joe Mixon this season. He averaged just 4.0 yards per carry and 60.8 yards per game as the bellcow back in Cincinnati last season, and now he plays for a Houston team that I expect to utilize a more "running back by committee" approach.

Let's also keep in mind the Texans' offensive line has struggled with its run blocking the past few seasons and now they face a top-10 run defense in the Colts. I'll take the UNDER on Mixon's rushing yards total.

8) Courtland Sutton OVER 4.5 Receptions (+125)

With Jerry Jeudy now in Cleveland, Courtland Sutton is the clear No. 1 target in the passing game for the Denver Broncos. Their Week 1 matchup is against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL in Seattle, who ranked 25th in opponent completions per game and 26th in opponent completion percentage last season.

At plus-money, I think Sutton hits five receptions as long as we can trust Bo Nix to sling the rock in his NFL debut.

7) Dak Prescott UNDER 249.5 Passing Yards (-114)

The Cleveland Browns' pass defense was historically good last season when playing on their home field. They gave up 4.0 yards per pass attempt when playing at home, 1.1 yards fewer than the next-best team. They also allowed an opponent completion percentage of just 55.59% at home, the best mark in the NFL.

Toss in the fact Dak Prescott has averaged 23.1 fewer passing yards per game when playing on the road in his career, and I love the UNDER on his passing yards total in Cleveland in Week 1.

6) Aaron Rodgers UNDER 235.5 Passing yards (-114)

I could not be lower on Aaron Rodgers this season. The last time he was his elite self was three years ago in Green Bay. He averaged only 217.4 passing yards per game in his final season in Green Bay and now he's coming off an Achilles injury as a 40-year old. I don't think he can hit 236 passing yards against a stout 49ers defense on Monday night.

5) James Conner OVER 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Despite the Buffalo Bills winning the AFC East last season, they had one glaring weakness; their ability to stop the run. They ranked 29th in the NFL last season in opponent yards per play, allowing 4.7 yards per snap.

I don't think the Bills have done enough this offseason to fix that hole and now they take on the Cardinals in Week 1, who have an underrated rushing offense. James Conner totaled 1,040 yards on the ground in just 13 games last season, averaging 80.0 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry. We only need him to rack up 51 yards in the opening week this season for this bet to cash.

4) Bijan Robinson OVER 3.5 Receptions (-115)

There have been reports all offseason that Zac Robinson, the Falcons' new offensive coordinator, plans to use Bijan Robinson in a Christian McCaffrey-esque role this season. To me, that means using him in the passing game a ton. Considering he averaged 3.4 receptions per game in Arthur Smith's offense last season, I think that number's going to balloon in 2024.

It's also important to note the Steelers gave up the sixth most receptions to running backs (92) last season.

3) Jacoby Brissett OVER 202.5 Passing yards (-114)

It's an ugly one backing the Patriots quarterback, but I think 202.5 passing yards is too low a number for him in Week 1. The Bengals gave up the most yards per pass attempt in the NFL last season, giving up 7.6 yards per pass attempt, and did not significantly improve their secondary this offseason.

Let's also remember that last season Brissett was a starting quarterback, he went over 202.5 yards in every start but one.

If you think the Patriots will be playing from behind, that leaves the opening for plenty of garbage time passing yards for Brissett.

2) Justice Hill OVER 15.5 Rushing yards (-115)

The Ravens have historically used a running back-by-committee approach and I don't expect that to change with Derrick Henry in Baltimore. The 30-year-old is in the back end of his career and I doubt the Ravens want to run him into the ground in Week 1.

The other two running backs are Rasheen Ali and Keaton Mitchell. Ali is doubtful for Week 1 and Mitchell is out, having been placed on the PUP. That leaves Justice Hill as the only other realistic candidate to get carries on opening night. All he needs is 16 yards for this bet to hit for us.

1) Caleb Williams UNDER 245.5 Passing Yards (-115)

245.5 passing yards is an extremely high total for a rookie quarterback in his NFL debut, especially playing in an offense that has a ton of new pieces and a new offensive coordinator.

It's also worth noting how good of a job the Titans did beefing up their secondary this offseason. They traded for L'Jarius Snead from the Chiefs and signed Chidobe Awuzie from the Bengals and Quandre Diggs from the Seahawks. This is a sneaky tough matchup for the USC product in his first NFL start. The UNDER on his passing yards total is my favorite prop bet for the opening slate of games.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!