Playoff Betting Trend for Favorites Is Great Sign for Chiefs, Lions and Eagles in Divisional Round

Jan 12, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) hands the ball off to running back Saquon Barkley (26) during the third quarter in an NFC wild card game at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
Jan 12, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) hands the ball off to running back Saquon Barkley (26) during the third quarter in an NFC wild card game at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The story of NFL Wild Card Weekend was that projected blowouts were just that while underdogs had the edge in projected tight ones. 

With the first weekend of the NFL Playoffs behind us, looking back on the results you can see a clear trend. The prohibitive favorites that were favored by more than three points – Ravens, Bills and Eagles – all rolled to double digit victories while three small underdogs won outright – Texans, Commanders, Rams. 

The Ravens, Bills and Eagles faced little resistance in the team's opening matchups this postseason, justifying Super Bowl hype for each team. What this tells me is that the gap between legitimate contenders for the Lombardi Trophy and those that are mere playoff caliber teams isn't being quantified in the betting market just yet in the early stages of the postseason.

Can we glean something from Wild Card Weekend and spin it forward to the divisional round? 

There are three considerable home favorites in this round as the Chiefs, Lions and Eagles are all laying at least five points against the Texans, Commanders and Rams, respectively. If last weekend was any indication, the home favorites should roll to the conference title game.

The interesting game lies in the near coin flip between the Ravens and Bills. Small underdogs thrived to start the postseason, and Baltimore has moved from an underdog to the favorite in the early betting window ahead of this marquee matchup, which would align the Bills with this postseason betting trend. 


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Reed Wallach
REED WALLACH

Reed is a Senior Editor at SI Betting. He grew up in New Jersey and graduated from the University of Wisconsin. His passion lies with the Brooklyn Nets, but is always hunting for an edge.