Purdue vs. Auburn Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, December 21

Reed Wallach | 12 Hours Ago

Nov 19, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) during the game against the Marquette Golden Eagles at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Auburn has looked the part of a National Championship contender this season, ranked tops in several analytical projections. 

However, the Tigers may not have its best player on the floor in Wooden Award favorite Johni Broome, who suffered a shoulder injury in the team’s most recent game against Georgia State. While Broome isn’t expected to miss too much time, his status is in doubt for the team’s neutral site showdown against Purdue. 

The Boilermakers have missed Zach Edey this season, but remain a formidable unit. Can the team keep this one competitive? 

Here’s our betting preview. 

Purdue vs. Auburn Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Purdue +9.5 (-106)
• Auburn: -9.5 (-114)

Moneyline

• Purdue: +365
• Auburn: -490

Total: 149.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Purdue vs. Auburn How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, December 21st
• Game Time: 4:30 PM EST
• Venue: BJCC Arena (Birmingham, Alabama)
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Purdue Record: 8-3
• Auburn Record: 10-1

Purdue vs. Auburn  Key Players to Watch

Purdue

Trey Kaufman-Renn: The Purdue forward would benefit from no Broome as thats his matchup. Stepping into a more featured role this season, Renn has thrived, shooting 57% from the floor while averaging 18 points per game. 

Auburn

Chad Baker-Mazara: If Broome is out, expect more on-ball reps from the senior forward has enjoyed another strong season with the group. He is shooting 39% from beyond the arc, but has also shown an ability to set the table for the rest of the Tigers, second to Broome with a 17% assist rate. 

Purdue vs. Auburn Prediction and Pick

Broome’s status for this one is of course paramount, but I believe that he will at least miss this game. With that in mind, I’ll back the underdog Boilermakers. 

Auburn HC Bruce Pearl on Johni Broome's injury:

"I couldn't even tell you status ... but the good news -- it's not a long-term problem."

(📹: Auburn University) pic.twitter.com/yQu3Eh3wOJ

— Max Cohan (@MaxCohan) December 19, 2024

Auburn is owed quite a bit of shooting regression on both sides of the ball, a seven percent shift against them per ShotQuality. Without the team’s hub on offense in Broome, the team’s leading passer as a point-forward that runs as the hub of the offense, we may see a bit of drop in efficiency. 

The big issue for Purdue to date has been its inability to protect the ball. The team is 220nd in turnover percentage, but Auburn doesn’t turn the opponent over all that much, 251st in turnover percentage. The Tigers let the opposition hunt for the best shot, but Purdue plays at a bottom 60 adjusted tempo, per KenPom, so this pace will be welcome to the team’s offense that is having some growing pains. 

This is a ton of points for Auburn to cover given that the team is playing above its heads on both offense and defense in terms of shot variance. With the possible loss of Broome, I believe it’s a good time to sell the Tigers as big favorites against a slow-paced team that bolsters a top 10 offense. 

PICK: Purdue +9.5

---

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.