Raptors vs. Heat Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, Dec. 12

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Toronto Raptors-Miami Heat matchup on Thursday, Dec. 12.

The Miami Heat and guard Tyler Herro are favored at home against the Toronto Raptors. / Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

The Miami Heat have owned the last 48 hours of NBA rumorville, as Jimmy Butler reportedly could be dealt by the trade deadline.

Butler, who is in the final season of his deal (he has a player option for next season that he’s expected to decline), reportedly has a list of teams (Golden State, Houston, and Dallas) that he’d be willing to be dealt to this season. 

So, the Heat have a major question mark hanging over their heads heading into Thursday’s matchup with the 7-18 Toronto Raptors.

It’s been a brutal season for the Raptors injury-wise, as Immanuel Quickley (elbow) has played in just three games and Scottie Barnes missed time early in the campaign. To make matters worse, Barnes was injured on Monday against the New York Knicks, exiting the game with a foot injury.

Toronto split the first two games against Miami this season, but its win came at home. On the road, Toronto is just 1-11 straight up this season. 

With the Butler drama likely to last through the holidays, the Heat have to keep winning to make it worth their while to keep him around.

Can they do that by covering as a home favorite on Thursday?

Let’s dive into the odds, prop bets and picks for this matchup. 

Raptors vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Raptors +10.5 (-110)
• Heat -10.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Raptors: +400
• Heat: -535

Total

• 224.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Raptors vs. Heat How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Dec. 12
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Kaseya Center
• How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports Sun, TSN
• Raptors record: 7-18
• Heat record: 12-10

Raptors vs. Heat Injury Reports

Raptors Injury Report

• Scottie Barnes – out
• Bruce Brown – out
• Immanuel Quickley – out
• Ulrich Chomche – out

Heat Injury Report

• Jimmy Butler – probable
• Josh Christopher – out
• Dru Smith – available
• Pelle Larsson – doubtful
• Josh Richardson – out

Raptors vs. Heat Best NBA Prop Bets

Toronto Raptors Best NBA Prop Bet

• RJ Barrett OVER 24.5 Points (-120)

With Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley banged up, the offense for Toronto is going to run through RJ Barrett on Thursday.

The former No. 3 overall pick is off to a great start this season, averaging 23.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game while shooting 46.2 percent from the field and 34.9 percent from 3. 

Barrett torched Miami earlier this season, scoring 25 and 37 points in two games against them, and he dropped 30 on the New York Knicks in his last game. I expect him to get all the shots he can handle tonight. 

Miami Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

• Tyler Herro OVER 3.5 3-Pointers Made (-142)

Heat guard Tyler Herro has been healthy this season, and he’s thriving as a scorer, averaging 24.2 points per game while shooting 47.7 percent from the field and 42.2 percent from beyond the arc. 

Earlier this season, Herro made 6-of-12 and 4-of-10 shots from beyond the arc against the Raptors, and he’s attempted at least 10 shots from deep in 13 of his 22 games this season. That gives him a terrific floor when it comes to a 3-point prop, and the Raptors are beatable from deep, allowing 13.6 made shots from 3 per game in the 2024-25 season. 

Raptors vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

The Raptors have won just one game on the road this season, but they are 7-5 against the spread in those matchups and only lost to Miami by 10 in Miami in their first meeting there.

The problem? 

Barnes played in that game, and the Raptors are just 2-9 straight up in the games that he’s missed, losing three of those games by double digits. 

I’m not totally sold on laying the points with the Heat here, though. 

Instead, I’m looking to the UNDER in this game, as Miami ranks 28th in the NBA in pace and the Raptors are just 21st in the NBA in offensive rating.

I have a hard time trusting Toronto to score much without Barnes, as it has five games with less than 110 points in the matchups that he’s missed. They’ve also hit the UNDER in over half of their games this season. 

If Miami can slow this game down and play in the half-court, I think this matchup ends up in the low 100s on Thursday. 

Pick: UNDER 224.5 (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.