Ravens vs. Chargers Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 12 (Baltimore Penalties Will Cost Them on Monday Night)

Iain MacMillan | 5 Hours Ago

The Ravens are road favorites on Monday Night Football against the Chargers. / Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

The Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers will face-off in Monday night's "Harbaugh Bowl". Jim and John will coach against each other since Super Bowl 47 when John's Ravens took down Jim's 49ers by a final score of 34-31.

Both teams are likely to be playoff teams with each already racking up seven wins, but the one who secures the victory on Monday night will all buy lock up a spot while keeping them in the hunt in their respective division. The loser, meanwhile, will still have an inside track on a wild card spot but can likely give up the dream of winning their division.

Let's take a look at the latest odds for this game and then I'll predict the final score.

Ravens vs. Chargers Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Spread

• Ravens -3 (-105)
• Chargers +3 (-115)

Moneyline

• Ravens -155
• Chargers +130

Total

• OVER 50.5 (-105)
• UNDER 50.5 (-115)

This game has been a rare case where the odds have relatively remained the same throughout the week. We have seen the moneyline odds shifted slightly in favor of the Chargers from +144 to +130. The total for the game has is where the movement had happened, falling two points from 50.5 to 48.5.

Ravens vs. Chargers Final Score Prediction

In this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets", I broke down why I'm taking the points with the underdog Chargers at home:

The Baltimore Ravens offense, when firing on all cylinders, is the best in the league. With that being said, they hurt themselves more than any other team. They lead the NFL in penalties this season with 92, 10 more than the next worse team. Their 763 penalty yards are also 74 more than the next closest team.

It's hard to not only win, but win with margin, when you're costing yourself that many yards a game.

If there's any team that can slow down the Ravens offense, it may just be the Chargers. Not only are they disciplined, committing the fourth fewest penalties at 53, but they're fourth in both opponent EPA and opponent success rate.

Then there's also the matter of Justin Herbert going up against the abysmal Ravens defense. The Ravens are 28th in opponent dropback EPA and 27th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.2). Herbert may be poised for his best start of the season.

When it comes to the total, I'm going to go against the odds movement and take the OVER. The Chargers defense showed last week against the Bengals that their defense isn't quite as elite as they showed in the first half of the season when facing the worst quarterbacks in the league in a weekly basis. The Ravens are by far the best offense they will have faced in 2024 and Justin Herbert will torch the Baltimore secondary.

I expect a Chargers win in an offensive shootout.

Final score prediction: Ravens 32, Chargers 34

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!