Ravens vs. Chiefs NFL Best Bets Today for Thursday Night Football in Week 1

Breaking down the best bets to place for the Week 1 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens.

Jan 28, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) looks to pass the ball against the Baltimore Ravens during the second half in the AFC Championship football game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

The NFL season kicks off with a bang this Thursday as the Baltimore Ravens visit the reigning Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs. 

Jackson vs. Mahomes: after a long off-season, it doesn’t get much better than that. 

 Lamar is the reigning NFL MVP, Mahomes is the reigning Super Bowl MVP. 

Both Jackson and Mahomes have won the NFL MVP twice.  Patrick Mahomes has won Super Bowl MVP three times.

Is this the year Jackson finally hoists the Lombardi? Will the Kansas City Chiefs complete the vaunted three-peat?  

The storylines are endless.

In their head-to-head matchups, Mahomes comes out on top.  Mahomes is 4-1 in his career vs. Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens.  

Most recently, the Chiefs pulled off an upset win vs. the Ravens in the AFC Championship game on their way to the Super Bowl.   The 17-10 final score is the only time in these two teams’ matchups went under the posted game total in Las Vegas.  There was a two and a half year gap between that AFC Championship game and their previous matchup.

The Ravens went 13-4 last season, while the Chiefs went 11-6.

Reports are that Lamar Jackson is looking trim and is even leaner than his rookie season. That bodes well for Jackson’s speed and ability to slip through defenses. Throw in Derrick Henry as a threat in the run game and a healthy Mark Andrews as Lamar’s favorite receiving weapon next to Zay Jones, and there’s a lot of optimism for this offense, despite a few young starters on the offensive line. 

The Chiefs offense is also looking in shape with Travis Kelce returning on a two-year deal, the addition of Marquise Brown in free agency, and the addition of deep-threat Xavier Worthy in the NFL draft, though Brown is likely not available for this matchup.   Both WR Rashee Rice and RB Isiah Pacheco also had breakout seasons in 2023 and are expected to continue their upward trajectory. 

Both defenses were elite in 2023, with the Ravens allowing only 16.8 points and the Chiefs allowing only 17.3 points per game during the regular season.  

The Ravens lost their DC, Mike MacDonald to the Seahawks in the off-season,  but they promoted Zach Orr from within and John Harbaugh will still oversee this stacked defensive unit.   The Chiefs lost L’Jarius Sneed to the Titans, but otherwise they have much of the same team that got them to the Super Bowl returning. 

So, where does that leave us?  With a close game. 

Kansas City allowed 116 rushing yards per game last season (16th-most) and 4.46 yards per attempt to opposing runners (9th-most).  That includes an average of 20 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.   Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson should be able to gain traction on the ground.  Jackson ran for 54 yards in the AFC Championship vs. the Chiefs. 

On the other side, the Baltimore Ravens allowed just 192 (sixth-fewest) passing yards per game during the regular season and 109 rushing yards per game (14th). However, the Chiefs were able to move the ball vs. the Ravens in that AFC Championship, with Kelce catching all 11 of his targets for 116 yards and a touchdown and Rice catching eight of his nine targets, too.   

Still, the end result was only 17 points for the Chiefs, and I expect this game will also be a low-scoring one.  

It’s no fun to root for the under, but with two savvy coaches and strong defenses, that’s where I will be putting my money on Thursday night.  According to the latest data from Bet MGM, the most bet over tickets this week are on this Ravens/Chiefs matchup. 

We’ll fade the public tonight, and throw in a bolder pick for plus-money, too. 

PICK: Under 46.5 (-108) at FanDuel
Chiefs Under 2.5 touchdowns (+120) at DraftKings

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