Ravens vs. Texans Final Score Prediction for Christmas Day in NFL Week 17 (Back Baltimore?)

The Ravens are road favorites in Week 17 against the Texans.

The Ravens are road favorites in Week 17. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans may match up in the first round of the NFL playoffs – in fact they would if the season ended today – but first they’ll play on Christmas Day on Wednesday.

Baltimore is coming off a massive win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16, putting the two teams into a tie at 10-5 in the AFC North. Baltimore is still technically in second, but it has a real path to a division title – and potentially a top-three seed – if it outplays Pittsburgh over the final two weeks of the regular season.

Houston has already locked up the AFC South, but it’s coming off a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday where it also lost Tank Dell to a dislocated kneecap. 

CJ Stroud has slumped a bit in his sophomore season, and oddsmakers have taken notice, setting Houston as an underdog at home for just the second time in the 2024 season. 

But from a betting perspective, who has the edge in this matchup?

Using the latest odds and analysis, I’m attempting to predict the final score of this matchup – giving bettors an idea of which side to bet in the process. 

Ravens vs. Texans Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Ravens -3 (-115)
• Texans +3 (-105)

Moneyline

• Ravens: -170
• Texans: +142

Total

• 47.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Houston has been a home underdog one other time this season, covering the spread in that matchup. 

Meanwhile, the Ravens have thrived as road favorites, going 5-2 against the spread. 

Ravens vs. Texans Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his pick for this matchup in our betting preview, and he’s taking the UNDER in this matchup, as Houston is one of the best under teams in the NFL this season: 

Both teams are dealing with wide receiver issues which could cause issues on Wednesday. The Texans have lost Tank Dell for the season and with John Metchie III questionable, they may be down to just Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and Xavier Hutchinson as the only viable options at the position. Zay Flowers of the Ravens also missed practice on Sunday as he deals with a shoulder injury that could keep him out from Wednesday's game.

On top of the offensive injuries, these two defenses have been two of the best in the NFL lately. Since Week 11, the Ravens rank fourth in opponent EPA per play and first in opponent success rate. The Texans' defense ranks fifth in opponent EPA per play and fourth in opponent success rate in that same time frame.

I think a low-scoring game favors the Ravens here, especially since they rank second in the NFL in rushing yards this season. 

With CJ Stroud down another weapon in Dell, I think the Ravens have been too dominant offensively to fade – even on the road. 

Plus, this game means a lot more for the Ravens (who can still win the AFC North) than Houston, who is likely locked into the No. 4 seed in the AFC.

Final Score Prediction: Ravens 23, Texans 16

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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