Red Sox vs. Mets Prediction, Odds and Probable Pitchers for Monday, Sept. 2 (Can Boston Upset?)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Boston Red Sox-New York Mets matchup on Monday.

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Brayan Bello. / Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

Both the Boston Red Sox and New York Mets are just out of the playoff picture in their respective leagues entering Monday night’s head-to-head matchup.

Boston is 4.5 games back of the final wild card spot in the American League, but a five-game skid by the Kansas City Royals has given Boston a little more hope that it could steal one of the final spots. 

Meanwhile, the Mets are just one game out of the final wild card spot in the National League, and they enter this contest on a four-game winning streak.

Can the Mets keep things rolling at home?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, key players to watch and my best bet on Monday night. 

Red Sox vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Red Sox +1.5 (-205)
• Mets -1.5 (+170)

Moneyline

• Red Sox: +102
• Mets: -122

Total

• 7.5 (Over -118/Under -102)

Red Sox vs. Mets Probable Pitchers

• Boston: Brayan Bello (12-6, 4.66 ERA)
• New York: Luis Severino (9-6, 3.96 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Mets How to Watch 

• Date: Monday, Sept. 2
• Time: 7:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Citi Field
• How to Watch (TV): SNY, NESN
• Red Sox record: 70-67
• Mets record: 73-64

Red Sox vs. Mets Key Players to Watch

Boston Red Sox

Rafael Devers: Devers has really struggled against New York Mets starter Luis Severino in his career, going 2-for-16 with six strikeouts. He also hasn’t had a multi-hit game since Aug. 18, so this could be a spot to fade Devers in his hit prop – if you trust the Mets’ bullpen. 

New York Mets

Luis Severino: After several injury-plagued seasons with the Yankees, Severino has bounced back nicely with the Mets in 2024. He has a 3.96 ERA and has led New York to a 13-13 record in 26 appearances. In August, Sevy made five starts, allowing four earned runs in three of them. He needs to keep that number down against a strong Boston offense. 

Red Sox vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Even though New York has been red hot, I think Boston is live to pull off an upset in this game.

On the surface, it doesn’t look like Bello has pitched well in 2024, but he has a 3.70 ERA in 11 starts since July 1, leading the Red Sox to a 9-2 record in those games.

Bello has just two starts where he allowed more than three earned runs, a solid floor for a Boston team that does rank eighth in MLB in runs scored per game.

For New York, Severino is having a solid season, but he has been the opposite of Bello, posting a 4.91 ERA in 10 starts since the beginning of July. 

New York does have the better bullpen in this matchup, but the Red Sox are an impressive 17-8 when Bello takes the mound in 2024. 

I have to back Boston as a slight underdog in this one. 

Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (+102)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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