Reed 'Em and Weep: College Football Betting Analysis and Best Bets for Week 10

Reed Wallach | Oct 30, 2024

Oct 12, 2024; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; Iowa State Cyclones quarterback Rocco Becht (3) warms up prior to a game against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images / Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Surely, time flies.

When the college football slate starts on Saturday, we will be into November as we quickly move from teams getting acquainted with conference play to the stretch run of the season with an eye on league titles and the College Football Playoff.

With the pressure and importance of each game ratcheting up, let’s take a look at some of my keys to each game as well as betting thoughts for each Top 25 matchup on the weekend card.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

College Football Week 10 Betting Preview

San Diego State vs. Boise State Betting Notes

Boise State survived its toughest conference test to date against UNLV, and now hit the stretch run of the season with the College Football Playoff in its sights.
San Diego State has been trending upward this season as the likes of quarterback Danny O’Neil have seemingly begun to figure out how to work with Sean Lewis’ up-tempo attack.
With that in mind, it may be tough for the Aztecs to keep Boise State out of the backfield. The team is tops in the country in sacks on the season.
Ashton Jeanty got banged up in the team’s win against UNLV last week. While he only missed a handful of snaps, he suffered an arm injury that is worth monitoring moving forward.
Jeanty has a rushing yard prop of 182.5. If the Broncos opt to manage his workload after 33 carries last week, it may be tough for him to top that with the team laying more than three touchdowns on the road.

Duke vs. Miami (Florida) Betting Notes

Make it three non-covers for Miami as double-digit play in ACC play with Florida State punching in a late score to get inside the number last week.
The Hurricanes will face former head coach Manny Diaz and his 6-2 Duke Blue Devils team which is far worse than the team’s record would indicate.
However, the point spread is well aware of that, installing the ‘Canes as nearly three-touchdown favorites.
While I have my concerns about Maalik Murphy, he has been a high-volume passer who has been able to push the ball down the field.
Murphy has 16 big-time throws to eight turnover-worthy plays this season, per Pro Football Focus. When he is kept clean, he is humming, completing 65% of his passes with 11 BTT to a pair of TWP. However, when under pressure, his completion percentage drops to 24% with five BTT to six TWP.
Unfortunately for him, Miami’s defensive line is ferocious, ranking 12th in pass rush grade.
Duke will be facing the best defense it has seen all season, but if Cam Ward wants to improve his Heisman Trophy standing, he must be careful.
The Blue Devils rank top 10 in the country in havoc rate (passes defended, tackles for loss, turnovers gained), which can give a sometimes nonchalant Ward issues on Saturday.

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Betting Notes

Ole Miss has a ton of talent, but when is it time to start downgrading the Rebels more aggressively?
While the expectation is that Tre Harris will return, he has been on the injury report for nearly a month, and with a game against Georgia on deck, is Lane Kiffin going to unleash him to play every snap if at all?
The Razorbacks have already spoiled a team’s season, upsetting Tennessee at home, and now get the opportunity to do so against Ole Miss at home.
Ja’Quinden Jackson is doubtful for this one, Arkansas’ lead running back, but Rodney Hill is expected to be back on the field as the Hogs try to play keep away from Ole Miss’ offense.
The Rebels have one of the best quarterbacks in the nation in Jaxson Dart, but the team has failed to score more than 27 points in SEC play this season.
With one of the best offensive play callers around in Bobby Petrino, can Arkansas find success against an Ole Miss defense that has been lightly challenged by elite offenses this season (the only offense inside the top 50 in EPA/Play it has played is LSU – which it lost to).
Arkansas has been an elite offense all season, flirting with seven yards per play and top 40 in EPA/Pass and Rush.
This has all the makings for a tight one.

Air Force vs. Army Betting Notes

While many will look to an under here between two teams that run the ball at a top 10 rate and play at a bottom 10 tempo, I can’t trust this Air Force team to avoid Army from finding six touchdowns.
The Black Knights are simply too explosive this season and the Falcons have fallen off a cliff among roster turnover.
Air Force is 115th in yards per play allowed and is 116th in EPA/Pass. While not a pass-first offense by any means, Bryson Daily has found his stride in this offense that is tops in EPA/Play this season while ranking 10th in explosive pass rate.
Army continues to get by on an easy strength of schedule, and while last season the Black Knights stunned Air Force as a multiple-score underdog, I don’t see the same happening this time.

Minnesota vs. Illinois Betting Notes

Illinois is being overlooked in this game following a blowout loss to Oregon – no shame in that.
Meanwhile, Minnesota is being overrated after a nice string of wins that includes a wind-filled game at home against USC, a second-half rally to beat UCLA on the road, and a blowout win against Maryland.
Illinois hasn’t been able to hang with the elite in the conference, but it has been the king of the middle class, and this matchup is ripe for a home win as underdogs.
I also like the over quite a bit in this game as both offenses should be in position to score.
While Minnesota’s passing game has come alive with Max Brosmer under center, running back Darius Taylor is in for a big afternoon against a Fighting Illini defense that has struggled to contain the rush all season.
Illinois ranks 132nd in defensive line yards and 111th in EPA/Rush. Against a healthy Taylor, who is averaging nearly five yards per carry, I expect the Gophers to be playing from ahead of the sticks in this one.
Meanwhile, Minnesota has been aided by some good fortune this season, playing USC in a windstorm and avoiding any competent passing game to date. While Illinois has struggled against its elite competition through the air, this group can test an overrated Minnesota secondary.
It all stems from the Golden Gophers’ lack of pressure, ranking 71st in pass rush grade this season, per Pro Football Focus.
If Altmyer has time, he has been elite all year long. When he is kept clean, Altmyer is completing two-thirds of his passes with 14 touchdowns to only three interceptions. When he is under pressure, he is completing 50% of his passes with only one touchdown.
The total in last year’s game closed 44.5 with both offenses struggling to move the ball at all, and went over. The better units should soar over this one on Saturday.

Ohio State vs. Penn State Betting Notes

Injury news will drive the betting action in this one with Drew Allar suffering a leg injury last week against Wisconsin and Ohio State losing a second offensive lineman in as many games to injury, Zen Michalski joined the injury report with Justin Simmons who is lost for the year.
So, I’ll try to lay out different contingencies for this one with an eye on the injury report.
Let’s start with Penn State, which has opened up the playbook when necessary and found success, ranking top five in EPA/Pass on the year. However, if Allar can’t go, and the game falls on Pribula, I expect a heavy dose of quarterback run game and a conservative game plan.
Pribula did complete 11-of-13 passes against Wisconsin in a strong second half, but this is a different beast in Ohio State.
Meanwhile, Ohio State’s offensive line being banged up isn’t great news against arguably the best defensive line in the Big Ten in Penn State. The Buckeyes have future NFL standouts at wide receiver, but this offense is built around its ability to move the ball on the ground.
There can be more pressure on Will Howard than ever to show up, but the early returns have been good. Outside of that last-second hiccup against Oregon (he didn’t have much of a choice), he has played at a high level all season despite not really being used as a runner, which can be utilized on Saturday.
If Allar goes, I believe the over can be a valuable bet despite the low total, but with injury concerns, my eyes are focused on the first half under.
I’m not betting anything until I get more clarity on the Penn State quarterback situation, but I do believe we see a conservative approach from both coaches as neither team wants to enter a negative game script too quickly.

Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Betting Notes

Brehen Morton left Texas Tech’s meltdown at TCU last week with a shoulder injury but is reportedly on track to play.
However, the Red Raiders are a significant underdog in Ames against an Iowa State team that can take the top off of this defense with quarterback Rocco Becht engineering an elite passing game.
Becht will have plenty of time against an average Texas Tech pass rush that is bottom 10 in the country in both tackling and coverage grade, per Pro Football Focus.
The ISU quarterback hasn’t been called upon too many times but erased a shaky showing against UCF ahead of the BYE week totaling nearly 400 total yards with three touchdowns.
He has been able to hit explosives at a high rate as well. The Cyclones have a 40-plus yard pass in all but one game on the season.

Oregon vs. Michigan Betting Notes

It was a nice win for the Wolverines last week against rival Michigan State, but this offense is broken. Back on its Week 1 quarterback Davis Warren, I don’t expect the group to move the ball very much.
The Michigan offense isn’t able to string together consistent drives with the inability to pass the ball down the field. While the team’s run game is still strong, it's easy to stop it when the opposition can load the box. The Wolverines are 116th in EPA/Pass and 114th in overall yards per play.
Michigan has remained competitive due to the elite defense, but the group won’t have answers for the Oregon offense that has rounded into form.
Even if the run game isn’t effective against Michigan’s sturdy defensive line, the Ducks are more than comfortable attacking with the quick passing game to spread out the Wolverines' secondary. Gabriel is completing more than 84% of his passes that are less than 10 yards down the field, per Pro Football Focus.
If Oregon gets to 20 points, I’m comfortable in saying the team wins the game outright, but with an eye on the future and maintaining its undefeated record, will the team try and ensure a cover and play the starters deep into this game?

Kansas State vs. Houston Betting Notes

Kansas State escaped a close call with Kansas in the Sunflower State Showdown last week and now heads to Houston to face a Houston team that has been playing far better with Zeon Chriss at quarterback.
While the Cougars offense still leaves a lot to be desired, the team’s defense has come along nicely this season in Willie Fritz’s first season, grading out around the national average in points per drive allowed (40th), yards per play allowed (59th) and EPA/Play (59th)
Trusting K-State this season as a big favorite has been a tricky task, 2-5 on the year when laying more than a field goal.
The one weak point of the Houston defense has been its inability to contain big runs, 132nd in explosive rush rate, which is the focal point of the K-State defense that has the likes of quarterback Avery Johnson as well as a dynamic running back group with D.J. Giddens and Dylan Edwards that is third in yards per carry on the season at more than six yards per rush.
The key will be for Houston to put Kansas State in obvious passing situations. The Cougars are 52nd in third and fourth down success rate while K-State is only 54th on offense. However, the Wildcats are 21st in Early Downs EPA/Play, which puts them ahead of schedule often.

Indiana vs. Michigan State Betting Notes

After winning at home last week without quarterback Kurtis Rourke, the Hoosiers' undefeated season continues, but the holes are starting to emerge in the foundation.
For starters, IU is optimistic about Rourke suiting up this week. The team is top 10 in EPA/Play this season when he is on the field, but it's fair to question his effectiveness after having thumb surgery just a week ago.
The team travels to Michigan State, which has been up and down all season with big-play threat Aidan Chiles. But with his big arm and dynamic play come a ton of turnover issues.
Chiles has nine big-time throws to 22 turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus this season.
Now, can Michigan State tap into its upside as a big underdog at home? We saw the team blow out Iowa last week as a similarly priced pooch two weeks ago. However, you aren’t getting a break in the price to bet the Spartans as a trendy home underdog, in my opinion.
The Hoosiers were out-gained last week against Washington but got ahead on the scoreboard with a pick-six near its own red zone and never looked back.
If Michigan State plays a clean game, which is far from a given with Chiles, the team does have all the makings of a live underdog.
The Spartans have been plagued by turnovers, but the team has done a good job of staying on schedule, top half of the nation in success rate and yards per play.
Meanwhile, the defensive line is the strength of the unit, top 35 in defensive line yards and EPA/Rush. If Rourke has any issues with his thumb and the Hoosiers' passing attack takes a dip, this can be a struggle on offense for the visitors.
Again, there’s not much value in the number, but the Hoosiers are certainly on upset alert in East Lansing.

Florida vs. Georgia Betting Notes

We have seen a little bit of everything from Georgia.
The team has played up and down to its competition, sometimes looking like the best team in the country, other times being gashed by out-matched foes.
Enter: Florida, who is starting freshman quarterback DJ Lagway who has flashed big-play ability with his lively arm.
He has passed for 1,024 yards on only 86 pass attempts with five touchdowns to five interceptions. Starting for the now-injured Graham Mertz for the rest of the season, Lagway led the Gators to a home win against Kentucky prior to its BYE week, completing seven passes for 259 yards.
Meanwhile, we have seen Georgia begin to lean into the deep ball as well with quarterback Carson Beck still getting used to a new receiving group.
Beck has had some growing pains this season with new weapons on offense, losing the likes of NFL studs Ladd McConkey and Brock Bowers, watching his turnover-worthy play rate nearly top last year’s mark, per Pro Football Focus. Beck has made 10 TWPs, nearly more than his 2023 total of 11.
Florida has held up fairly well against as difficult of a schedule you can ask for to date, top 20 in yards per play. With Lagway stepping in for Mertz, the team may be more reliant on the big play threat, but in a game as a big underdog, that type of variance may help raise the ceiling for a potential upset.
This Georgia defense has the ability to be the best in the country, but it doesn’t show it week in and week out, rather when necessary. Mississippi State was able to punch in a handful of scores against the Bulldogs' defense in a 41-31 loss on the road, and I believe Lagway can stretch the field and move the ball at times against the National Championship favorites.
Meanwhile, look for the Georgia offense to continue to push the ball downfield, Beck’s average depth of target is up about a yard this season, and UF is outside the top half of the country in explosive pass rate.

Texas A&M vs. South Carolina Betting Notes

Full credit to Texas A&M for rallying to pull away from LSU at home in a College Football Playoff-lite matchup, moving to backup Marcell Reed mid-game.
However, the Aggies benefitted from the stark contrast between Reed and starter Conner Weigman.
Reed only passed the ball twice against the Tigers but ran the ball nine times for 62 yards and three touchdowns. However, he will face a far better rush defense that can game plan for his play style in South Carolina.
Now, with a week to prepare, the Gamecocks will surely be ready with its elite defensive line that is top 10 in yards per carry allowed.
Texas A&M head coach Mike Elko has not announced a starter for this one, so possibilities are endless for the Aggies offense, but ultimately I think this game is played tight and full of negative plays.
Whether it’s Reed or Weigman under center for the Aggies, the team is focused on the ground game. The team is top 10 in rush rate this season, and if the team goes with Reed, it will be even more grounded with the zone read game playing a big role.
On the other side, South Carolina's offensive line is horrific, especially in the SEC against elite defensive lines. The team has allowed the second most sacks in the country this season and is outside the top 100 in EPA/Play. With no deep passing game, Texas A&M can rush LaNorris Sellers early and often.
This game will likely be one dictated by field position and runs into loaded defensive boxes.
Don’t be surprised if there is some “Beamer Ball” in Columbia on Saturday night with head coach Shane Beamer’s team always a threat in the special teams portion of the game, but I do think you are paying a serious tax to back the home underdog.
Ole Miss was a 10.5-point favorite against South Carolina a few weeks back, and now the Gamecocks are inside of a field goal?
I prefer the under if it gets back to the key number of 45 rather than taking the small home underdog.

Louisville vs. Clemson Betting Notes

Clemson is averaging north of 48 points per game in the last six games. Since the Georgia game in Week 1, the team has been smashing anyone in its way.
The team will host Louisville, who is set to play a grueling seventh straight game at night in Death Valley after a close call against Boston College.
Louisville’s defense is on fumes, playing its seventh straight game and starting to show cracks in the big play department. The Cardinals are outside the top 100 in both explosive pass and run rate this season, which can allow the Tigers to move the ball with ease on offense.
Jeff Brohm’s teams have been a tough out as underdogs, but it’s fair to question if it has the firepower to keep up. If the Cards keep it close, look for Tyler Shough and Ja’Corey Brooks to have a big day in the passing game.
Clemson’s defense hasn’t faced too many elite teams and is only 70th in EPA/Play this season. Against a Louisville offense that is 14th in EPA/Pass and 38th in EPA/Rush, the team may hit some big plays to keep this game competitive.
Brooks has 80 or more receiving yards in all but one game this season and has cleared 100 yards in four.

Kentucky vs. Tennessee Betting Notes

Kentucky is a team that could quit on the season.
To be fair, many questioned Mark Stoops’ team effort earlier in the season and the team turned around and beat Ole Miss on the road.
Anyway, the offense is not functional. The team is going to possibly be rotating be Brock Vandagriff and Gavin Wimsatt, but neither has a prayer of holding up against Tennessee’s defense that is second in EPA/Play.
The key to the Wildcats keeping this competitive is behind its defense and the lack of passing game from Tennessee.
Nico Iamaleava has struggled in SEC play, but this Kentucky defense looks like it is about to break down after letting Auburn’s lead running back Jarquez Hunter rush for nearly 300 yards last week in the team’s 24-10 loss.
If the Vols can show some flashes in the passing game early, rushing lanes should open up nicely for Dylan Sampson to run through. The MVP of the Tennessee offense is averaging nearly six yards per carry this season.

Pittsburgh vs. SMU Betting Notes

Pitt is enjoying an undefeated season, but it’s obvious that oddsmakers don’t believe in this group, catching more than a touchdown at SMU.
New offensive coordinator Kade Bell’s new offense has possibly slowed down, out-gained in the last two games by a total of more than 200 yards in the two victories, and now will face an SMU team that has the two-way prowess to out-class Pitt.
Of course last week, Pitt didn’t need much help, picking off Kyle McCord five times and returning three for a touchdown in the blowout win.
However, Eli Holstein got banged up in that game, and the team’s starting quarterback is questionable for this game.
To be fair, SMU’s starter Kevin Jennings, who had three fourth-quarter turnovers in a near-meltdown against Duke, also is questionable for this one but was viewed at practice on Wednesday.
The Pitt offense has faced one defense inside the top half of the country in EPA/Play this season, scoring only 17 points against Cal. Now, on the road, and against a defense that is seventh in EPA/Play this season, I believe we see the team continue to struggle.
Of course, if Holstein doesn’t play, the Pitt offense will suffer overall trotting out backup Nate Yarnell, but even with QB1, I believe the Panthers regress and struggle against an elite defense.