Reed 'Em and Weep: College Football Betting News and Notes for Week 1

Reed Wallach | Aug 29, 2024

Jan 1, 2024; Pasadena, CA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) throws a pass in the second quarter against the Michigan Wolverines in the 2024 Rose Bowl college football playoff semifinal game at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

A new season is upon us.

The 2024 college football season kicks off this weekend with a handful of marquee matchups. As you get caught up to speed on the transfers and coaching changes, we have been preparing all summer with a boatload of coverage. Ahead of the biggest games of the weekend, including Clemson vs. Georgia on a neutral site and Sunday's LSU-USC matchup, I will fill you in on three things I'm watching for in each game and what can determine the matchup.

Below, you'll find the key news, updates, and determining factors for who will get off to a hot start in 2024 with coverage of each ranked team's FBS matchups.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Clemson vs. Georgia (in Atlanta) News and Notes

Who will man the Bulldogs backfield?

Georgia’s transfer running back Trevor Etienne may be suspended for the team’s opener after a DUI in the summer and the team’s backup running back Roedrick Robinson underwent toe surgery keeping him out of this one. If neither tailbacks go, it’ll likely be sophomore Branson Robinson manning the backfield as well as a handful of true freshmen.

Can Cade Klubnik take the next step?

There were plenty of growing pains for Klubnik in Garrett Riley’s scheme last season, but can a full offseason of work help the two connect? The Tigers were outside the top 100 in EPA/Pass but will have a revamped pass-catching group that includes sophomore Tyler Brown and true freshman Bryant Wesco Jr. to go with a healthy Antonio Williams.

Clemson’s offensive line

Klubnik showed an inability to handle opposing defenses and make plays downfield, but the offensive line was subpar as well. On about a third of dropbacks, Klubnik was pressured according to Pro Football Focus in which he completed 37% of his passes with four big-time throws to 12 turnover-worthy plays. Overall, the Tigers' offensive line ranked 73rd in pass blocking, per PFF. Can the big fellas up front improve?

Penn State vs. West Virginia News and Notes

Rematch, same result?

Last season, West Virginia went to Happy Valley in Week 1 catching 20.5 points and stayed competitive for much of the game, ultimately failing to cover following a late (meaningless) Penn State touchdown. However, the box score shows that this game was in little doubt for the Nittany Lions, outgaining West Va. 478-308 and racking up six tackles for loss. With a tighter point spread, can Penn State find an easier cover?

Can Penn State unlock Drew Allar under new OC Andy Kotelnecki?

Allar cooked in last year’s game, completing 21-of-29 passes for 325 yards, but failed to match that success all season. The Nittany Lions hired the innovative Kotelnecki to get the O on track. Can Allar be more of a threat in the passing game?

Was 2023 real for the Mountaineers?

West Virginia went 9-4 in a bounce-back campaign for Neal Brown and co. It’s worth noting, though, that West Va. beat only two teams in the regular season that made a bowl game, Texas Tech and UCF.

Akron vs. Ohio State News and Notes

Running back room in Columbus

TreVeyon Henderson is a devastating rusher, but the Buckeyes loaded up its running back room, landing Quinshon Judkins from Ole Miss to make the most potent tandem at tailback in the country. I’m watching how the carry share is split in this one.

Will Howard in Chip Kelly’s offense

As part of the changes for the Buckeyes, the team landed Kansas State transfer Will Howard in the transfer portal, a capable runner, to run new OC Chip Kelly’s offense. I expect a conservative effort with the Buckeyes laying nearly 50 points, but I’m interested to see how Howard is utilized.

Is this the best defense in the country?

Ohio State didn’t just add on offense, bringing in SEC Freshman of the Year Caleb Downs, among others, to continue fortifying its already College Football Playoff-level defense that ranked fourth last season in EPA/Play. How good can this defense be? We’ll see it starting on Saturday.

Colorado State vs. Texas News and Notes

What will Texas put on film for Michigan?

The Longhorns were in a similar spot last season, hosting Rice in the opening game before traveling to Alabama next week. Texas kept it pretty conservative and won 37-10, failing to cover and staying under the total.

Can Quinn Ewers lead a new look pass catching group?

Gone are the top five receivers from last year’s CFP team, and the Longhorns rebuilt it with a ton of talent, including Alabama transfer Isaiah Bond and Oregon State import Sillas Bolden, but will the offense have the same ceiling that it did last year?

Running back usage

The Longhorns lost starting running back CJ Baxter and depth piece Christian Clark for the year, putting more pressure on Jaydon Blue (6.1 yards per carry in 2023) to perform. How will the RB room shake out behind him?

Miami (Florida) vs. Florida News and Notes

New look Hurricanes hit the road early

Much was made of Miami’s transfer portal activity, namely bringing in Washington State’s Cam Ward to ignite the offense with CFP aspirations. I’m curious how it all fits in Week 1 against an in-state rival in a hostile environment.

Which secondary can prevail?

Florida’s secondary was downright atrocious last season, ranking 110th in EPA/Pass and 129th in explosive pass defense. Can the team take a step forward? I’ll be watching out for that, but what about Miami, who has to replace four starters in the secondary this season against a more than capable Florida passing offense that was 27th in EPA/Pass?

Will Mario Cristobal make it all click?

Transfer-laden rosters are a tough nut to crack. Some are the perfect blend while others are clunky early and often. Cristobal has come under duress at different points in his tenure for his in-game coaching decisions but has been a master talent accumulator. This is his biggest test.

Western Kentucky vs. Alabama News and Notes

Jalen Milroe in Kalen DeBoer’s offense

Milroe was one of the best deep ball throwers in the country last season, converting 27 big-time throws on passes of more than 20 yards to zero turnover-worthy plays, per PFF. Now he joins forces with DeBoer, who turned Washington’s offense into the most dangerous passing attack in college football. Will he mesh? If so, will it be in the opener?

State of the Crimson Tide passing game

Following the thought from above, Washington had three NFL wide receivers in the passing game, far better than what Alabama has to offer right now. Meanwhile, Milroe is known for his athleticism and ability to extend plays, he had the third-highest time to throw of qualified quarterbacks last season, while Penix Jr. was about a third of a second slower, than the national average. There can be some learning curve for this Crimson Tide offense.

T.J. Finley faces Alabama again

Finley nearly stunned Alabama in 2021 as quarterback of Auburn, and now faces the Crimson Tide as a member of the Hilltoppers air-raid offense. How will he gel in his first start under center for the Conference USA offense with some familiarity against an SEC foe?

Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M News and Notes

New look Irish offense limps in

The line in this game has moved from Marcus Freeman's bunch being favored on the road to a considerable underdog on the news that the team will be without starting left tackle Charles Jagusah for the season. Jagusah is filling in for No. 5 overall pick Joe Alt, so a step back was expected, but this only adds to the difficulty for the Riley Leonard-led offense against his former coach Mike Elko, who has an elite defensive line on the other side.

Riley Leonard

Leonard, Elko, and the Duke program were one of the stories of the first part of 2023, stunning Clemson and starting 4-0 on the year. However, when you look under the hood, I'm not as impressed with the dual-threat Leonard, and I'm curious if he can have similar success after two-foot procedures. He completed less than 57% of his passes with three passing touchdowns to three interceptions. However, the 6'4" QB is a devastating rusher, racking up 388 yards in five games before injury with four touchdowns (and four fumbles). What will he look like in a new system?

Collin Klein’s offense

Conner Weigman has shown flashes in a small sample size for the Aggies, but injuries have slowed him down. Can he stay on the field and thrive under new OC Collin Klein? The former Kansas State playcaller has engineered a unique running scheme that opens up the passing game and will now have more talent at his disposal than ever before. I'm curious to see how the Aggies fare against an elite Notre Dame defense.

Fresno State vs. Michigan News and Notes

Will Michigan show anything?

The Wolverines may have a new coaching staff, but this is a team that still will have a similar identity to last year's National Championship team.

Lean on the defense, establish the run.

With a new quarterback and plenty of turnovers, will Michigan show anything, but play at an incredibly slow rate and run the ball 90% of the time against Fresno State as three-touchdown favorites? I think not.

Alex Orji

Orji has completed one pass in his time at Michigan, two seasons ago in fact.

We know the QB can run, he has been used in wildcat packages, but this Michigan team, that has a host of new weapons around tight end Colston Loveland, needs to be capable in the passing game to maintain its CFP level.

Michigan’s defense should look CFP good again

Michigan lost a ton off its National Championship roster, but are near the national average in returning production on defense (78th). I believe the unit will be inside the top five yet again in key stats like EPA/Play and yards per play allowed as the team tries to focus on a smashmouth style of football.

With Mason Graham back on the line and Will Johnson in the secondary, I don't expect much from the opposition.

New Mexico vs. Arizona News and Notes

State of Arizona’s offense

Arizona is transitioning schemes, but will still have key cogs in place like quarterback Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan. The Wildcats offense was 11th in EPA/Play, particularly potent in the passing game, ranking 15th in EPA/Pass, but will have a new play caller in Dino Babers, how will he tinker with the scheme? Keep an eye on Babers' usage of tight ends this season as the team is flush with options, including junior Kenyan Burnett.

Tetairoa McMillan’s usage

McMillan, one of the top wide outs in college football had offseason knee surgery that kept him on the sidelines for much of camp. He is expected to be a full go for this one, but his usage will be a backstory all season.

New Mexico’s offense shows out

New Mexico's offense looked farther along than expected in Week 0, using unique play designs to open up rushing lanes for both running back Rahiem Sanders and quarterabck Devon Dampier. Will the Lobos be an over team in 2024? The total has shot up four and-and-a-half points since open.

USC vs. LSU (in Las Vegas) News and Notes

Did either defense really improve?

Both defenses were a trainwreck in 2023, each bottom 20 in EPA/Play. They tried to fix it by way of hiring two prominent coordinators. The Tigers brought in Blake Baker from Missouri while USC snatched UCLA DC D'Anton Lynn. It'll be tough sledding, but I'm curious to see who improves the fastest.

Replacing the last two Heisman Trophy winners

Offense is rarely an issue for either team, but there are more questions than usual on this side with each team replacing the top two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Both Miller Moss of USC and Garrett Nussmeier of LSU have shown out in limited action, but this will be the first look at both in a full-time starting position. I'd lean towards Nussmeier being more talented, but Moss will have quarterback whisperer Lincoln Riley in his ear with the new headset communication. Will that alter this game?

Speed kills

With a total in the mid 60's, the expectation is that there will be plenty of points on Sunday on the fat track of Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Given that both defenses are likely going to have some growing pains before it improves, it's hard not to be interested in betting on the high-powered offenses.

Boston College vs. Florida State News and Note

Florida State, wyd?

What a piss-poor effort form the Seminoles in Dublin. Outside of the first drive touchdown, Florida State looked completely out-mathed by Georgia Tech on both sides of the abll, out-gained by about a yard-and-a-half per play and posting a negative EPA/Rush.

There was always going to be a drop-off for the Noles after losing 13 players to NFL rosters, but this was significant.

Castellanos’ mobility

Georgia Tech quarterabck Haynes King carried the ball 15 times against the Noles and backup Zach Pyron punched it in from a yard out as well as the FSU linebacker group struggled to contain the Yellow Jackets on the ground.

Now, the team must deal with one of the most potent rushers at quarterback in the country in Thomas Castellanos, who tallied nearly 1,000 yards on the ground.

Florida State’s talent edge

BC is going through some coaching turnover, handing the reins to Bill O'Brien, and the team is likely out-matched by the pure talent of Florida State.

The Noles were downgraded a touchdown from its shaky performance across the pond, but there is no denying that this team has more than enough to out-pace Boston College, who should have the team's full attention after a near-loss in Chestnut Hill a year ago.

BC beat only two bowl eligible teams last season, and this can be a good buying opportunity on the team with a significant edge in the trenches. The Eagles were 129th in yards per carry allowed last season, which can open up the field for DJ Uiagalelei.

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Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33